This Saturday Hooker vs Parnasse · Accor Arena Paris France See this week's picks →

Data-driven UFC predictions — with a public record.

This Saturday · 5 Sep 2026
Hooker vs Parnasse
Accor Arena Paris France · 14 fights
70%
every fight we called · 2026 (245-105, n=350)
77.78%
on strong consensus (63-18, n=81)
70% is every fight we called in 2026 — 245-105 across 350 picks, all graded in public, toss-ups included. We don't cherry-pick. Not every call is equal: when our models strongly agree we run at 77.78% (63-18); whenever they agree at all, 74.7% (124-42). How our tiers work → · See the receipts →

This week's picks

Picks as of 1 Sep 08:53 UTC, when this page was built · live market prices as of 1 Sep 04:30 UTC (14 of 14 bouts priced). This is a static page: nothing on it updates until it is rebuilt.
MAIN CARD
★ Main Event · Lightweight +430 / -491
Dan Hooker
VS
Salahdine Parnasse
41% 59%
LOW We predict Salahdine Parnasse — 59% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 42%
Goes distance
31%
Median time
9:38
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Salahdine Parnasse 82%
The model backs Salahdine Parnasse at 59%, most likely by KO/TKO (42%), -22.6pp vs the market.
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Lightweight +130 / -149
Axel Sola
VS
Fares Ziam
31% 69%
MED We predict Fares Ziam — 69% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 57%
Goes distance
62%
Median time
12:57
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Fares Ziam 57%
The model backs Fares Ziam at 69%, most likely by DEC (57%), +11.3pp vs the market.
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Middleweight -168 / +140
Michael Page
VS
Nursulton Ruziboev
53% 47%
TOSS-UP We predict Michael Page — 53% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 43%
Goes distance
28%
Median time
7:25
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Michael Page 62%
The model backs Michael Page at 53%, most likely by KO/TKO (43%), -6.8pp vs the market.
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Welterweight -225 / +198
Daniil Donchenko
VS
Punahele Soriano
71% 29%
HIGH We predict Daniil Donchenko — 71% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 54%
Goes distance
36%
Median time
9:10
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Daniil Donchenko 70%
The model backs Daniil Donchenko at 71%, most likely by KO/TKO (54%), +3.7pp vs the market.
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Featherweight -183 / +152
Felipe Lima
VS
Morgan Charriere
64% 36%
HIGH We predict Felipe Lima — 64% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 55%
Goes distance
48%
Median time
10:51
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Felipe Lima 62%
The model backs Felipe Lima at 64%, most likely by DEC (55%), +2.3pp vs the market.
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Featherweight -275 / +265
Losene Keita
VS
Muhammad Naimov
62% 38%
MED We predict Losene Keita — 62% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 45%
Goes distance
41%
Median time
8:25
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Losene Keita 74%
The model backs Losene Keita at 62%, most likely by DEC (45%), -10.4pp vs the market.
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PRELIMS
Heavyweight -265 / +257
Mario Pinto
VS
Ryan Spann
77% 23%
LOCK We predict Mario Pinto — 77% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 44%
Goes distance
30%
Median time
8:39
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Mario Pinto 72%
The model backs Mario Pinto at 77%, most likely by KO/TKO (44%), +4.4pp vs the market.
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Featherweight -333 / +300
Kurtis Campbell
VS
Trevor Peek
74% 26%
LOCK We predict Kurtis Campbell — 74% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 47%
Goes distance
42%
Median time
9:16
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Kurtis Campbell 76%
The model backs Kurtis Campbell at 74%, most likely by DEC (47%), -1.0pp vs the market.
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Light Heavyweight +181 / -188
Modestas Bukauskas
VS
Oumar Sy
27% 73%
HIGH We predict Oumar Sy — 73% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 45%
Goes distance
38%
Median time
9:27
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Oumar Sy 66%
The model backs Oumar Sy at 73%, most likely by KO/TKO (45%), +8.0pp vs the market.
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Featherweight -134 / +108
Mairon Santos
VS
Nathaniel Wood
61% 39%
MED We predict Mairon Santos — 61% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 62%
Goes distance
61%
Median time
12:12
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Mairon Santos 50%
The model backs Mairon Santos at 61%, most likely by DEC (62%), +6.9pp vs the market.
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Flyweight +120 / -137
FSFabia Sintes
VS
MAMichael Aljarouj
47% 53%
TOSS-UP We predict Michael Aljarouj — 53% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 41%
Goes distance
28%
Median time
6:29
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Michael Aljarouj 56%
The model backs Michael Aljarouj at 53%, most likely by DEC (41%), -3.2pp vs the market.
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Women's Bantamweight +110 / -121
KSKlaudia Sygula
VS
Nora Cornolle
53% 47%
TOSS-UP We predict Klaudia Sygula — 53% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 65%
Goes distance
60%
Median time
11:44
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Klaudia Sygula 46%
The model backs Klaudia Sygula at 53%, most likely by DEC (65%), +6.3pp vs the market.
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Middleweight +105 / -105
Luis Felipe Dias
VS
Matthieu Duclos
50% 50%
TOSS-UP We predict Matthieu Duclos — 50% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 42%
Goes distance
22%
Median time
5:36
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Matthieu Duclos 52%
The model backs Matthieu Duclos at 50%, most likely by KO/TKO (42%), -0.9pp vs the market.
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Women's Strawweight -155 / +130
Delphine Benouaich
VS
Sofia Montenegro
54% 46%
TOSS-UP We predict Delphine Benouaich — 54% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 45%
Goes distance
31%
Median time
7:10
Live · Polymarket 1 Sep 04:30 UTC
Delphine Benouaich 58%
The model backs Delphine Benouaich at 54%, most likely by DEC (45%), -4.6pp vs the market.
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