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Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj
Flyweight · 3 rounds
FS
Fabia Sintes
11-3
VS
MA
Michael Aljarouj
The model's read

The model's pick is Michael Aljarouj over Fabia Sintes at 53% confidence — a coin-flip.

Most likely outcome: a decision at 41% (KO/TKO 31%, submission 28%, decision 41%) — but all three finishes stay live.

The model gives it a 28% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 6:29.

That read carries 3.2pp of edge below the market on Michael Aljarouj.

Live on Polymarket, Michael Aljarouj is priced around 56%.

Assembled from the model's own outputs (confidence, method & round distribution, edge vs the market, live price) — not written free-hand. If a number isn't in the model, it isn't in this summary.

Prediction

One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.

TOSS-UP We predict Michael Aljarouj — 53% confident
Fabia Sintes 47% Michael Aljarouj 53%
How it ends (method)
KO / TKO31%
Submission28%
Decision41%
How long it lasts (rounds)
Reaches R252%
Reaches R330%
Goes the distance28%
6:29
median time
-3.2pp
edge vs market

Odds

The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.

paymentsSportsbook line
Fabia Sintes44% · +120
Michael Aljarouj56% · -137
bar = implied chance, vig removed
Live · Polymarket
Fabia Sintes44% · +125
Michael Aljarouj56% · -125
as of 2026-09-01T04:30:07Z · $2,360 liquidity
scheduleKalshi pending
No Kalshi market found for this bout.

Line moves

What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Fabia SintesMichael AljaroujPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj — implied win chance over timeLine chart. Market-implied win chance for Fabia Sintes and Michael Aljarouj from Aug 28 to Sep 01, drawn from Polymarket and the sportsbook consensus. Fabia Sintes moves from 50% to 44% and Michael Aljarouj from 50% to 56%. A gold marker shows where our pick was frozen.35%40%45%50%55%60%65%Aug 28Aug 29Aug 30Aug 31Sep 1▲ we passed here (toss-up)44%56%

Michael Aljarouj's implied chance drifted up from 50% to 56% (+5.5pp) over this window.

Show the numbers
SeriesOpenLowHighLatestMove
Fabia Sintes — sportsbook consensus44.1%41.6%44.1%44.0%−0.1pp
Michael Aljarouj — sportsbook consensus55.9%55.9%58.4%56.0%+0.1pp
Fabia Sintes — Polymarket50.0%40.5%50.0%44.5%−5.5pp
Michael Aljarouj — Polymarket50.0%50.0%59.5%55.5%+5.5pp
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,025 snapshots on file · window Aug 28 17:39–Sep 01 08:51Z · latest Sep 01, 08:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.

Props

Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.

MarketOur readMarket
KO/TKO YES31%34%
SUB YES28%34%
DEC YES41%32%
GOES DISTANCE YES28%32%
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS52%26%
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS30%32%
Source: polymarket-gamma · as of 2026-09-01T04:30:07Z. “Our read” is the model's probability; “Market” is the de-vigged live price.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj.

FS
Red corner FabiaSintes“El Potro Menorquin”Levium Armorum Team · Spain
VSUpcoming
MA
Blue corner MichaelAljarouj“The Soldier”France
Flyweight3 roundsPicks published · graded in public after the card
Spain
From
France
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Fabia Sintes and Michael Aljarouj have no UFC bout on record yet, so those vitals come from ESPN’s public fighter register and the rows counted off UFC tape are not drawn for them.
All the vitals, as a table
11-3Record—
El Potro MenorquinNicknameThe Soldier
5' 6"Height—
—StanceOrthodox
32Age—
125 lbs.Weight125 lbs.
SpainNationalityFrance
Levium Armorum TeamFighting out of—
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics, except Fabia Sintes and Michael Aljarouj — no UFC bout on record yet, so those vitals come from ESPN's public fighter register and the career rates stay blank until there is UFC tape to compute them from. Nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Fabia SintesMichael Aljarouj
n/a
Striking
n/a
n/a
Defence
n/a
n/a
Grappling / TD
n/a
n/a
CardioNot on the UFC statistical record we read
n/a
n/a
ChinNot on the UFC statistical record we read
n/a
n/a
Fight IQ
n/a
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Stats comparison

pending

Striking and grappling head-to-head for Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj is pending.

Bios

pending

Profiles for Fabia Sintes and Michael Aljarouj live on their fighter pages — neither has written prose on file yet, and we don't publish filler.

Related coverage

pending

No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →

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