Two LOCK picks, five HIGH, and five of the seven projected to go to a decision.
Read →The former lightweight champion meets Alexander Hernandez in Salt Lake City in what will be the 50th fight of his career.
Read →The welterweight lost a unanimous decision to Islam Makhachev this month, and the UFC analyst says it costs him nothing.
Read →The Nevada State Athletic Commission is set to take up a review next week, and the money from Steveson's July win may be held.
Read →The former interim welterweight champion says he has signed for submission grappling matches, months after retiring from UFC competition.
Read →Both of our biggest misses were submissions, and we do not have an explanation for that.
Read →Two of our four LOCK picks lost, both by submission. The model graded 6 of 11 winners on the Aug. 15 card.
Read →The model flagged six of the 11 bouts it read in Philadelphia, and all four top-tier picks sit on the undercard.
Read →Every model read for tonight's 12-fight card in Philadelphia, with the tiers and the gaps.
Read →Makhachev and Machado Garry headline Saturday, and our model flagged neither championship bout.
Read →Our model had the right winner and the wrong method.
Read →The Ultimate Fighter season 11 winner is closing a 16-year, 24-fight run on the UFC roster.
Read →Twelve fights at the APEX, five decisions, and a 35-second finish that ended Darren Elkins' 31-fight UFC run.
Read →The model called every winner at UFC Vegas 120. That is one card of 12 fights, and the method column still went 5 of 12.
Read →Alexia Thainara and Ty Miller are the only two fights our model flags on a 12-bout card at the APEX.
Read →Twelve of 14 fights ended inside the distance in Serbia; our model took the winners and lost the methods.
Read →What our model says about all 12 fights at the APEX before anyone throws a punch.
Read →A UFC career that began in 2010 ends Saturday in Las Vegas, on a date he chose himself.
Read →Only two fights on the Aug. 1 card in Serbia reached the scorecards.
Read →The winner column held up on the Aug. 1 card. The method column did not, for the second card running.
Read →Medic vs. Rodriguez tops 14 fights in Serbia, and two of our flagged picks come with caveats we would rather state than bury.
Read →The week's reported news: a promotional merger, a Moscow headliner, a Shanghai addition and a callout.
Read →Friday, July 31: one LOCK in Serbia, a merged PFL and MVP, and Chimaev's return in Moscow.
Read →A former champion begins his climb back against a short-notice contender, hours after the card lost a bout when a 12-1 prospect was hospitalized.
Read →Eight of 12 fights ended inside the distance at Etihad Arena, and the main event was the only bout to get past the third round.
Read →Both flagged picks landed and both misses came from the bottom of our confidence range. The method column was the weak spot.
Read →A confirmed Pitbull-Choi featherweight bout and a reported Moicano-Ortega rematch stack up on the Sept. 19 Los Angeles card, while the expected Tsarukyan-Oliveira headline stays unofficial.
Read →Ankalaev begins his climb back tonight in Abu Dhabi, the card lost a fight on the day, and UFC 331 is building. What's on, and where our numbers stand.
Read →The champion swept the scorecards at Paycom Center, keeping the middleweight belt over the full five rounds.
Read →We hit the main event and seven others, missed four, and are holding back per-fight tiers pending a data re-certification.
Read →UFC 329 autopsy: our model tagged Max Holloway a HIGH pick against a returning Conor McGregor, went 4-for-4 on every conviction call and got the method right too. The only losses were toss-ups.
Read →Holloway ended McGregor's comeback and our model called it; tonight it's Du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City. The autopsy, the build, and an honest hold on tonight's number.
Read →Islam Makhachev, Frankie Edgar and Du Plessis's own coach have circled the same fight-week question about Kamaru Usman's move to middleweight: can his knees still carry his wrestling?
Read →A quiet booking week put a middleweight main event on the calendar, handed Marlon Vera a way off a four-fight skid, and sent an ex-PFL champ to Abu Dhabi. Here is what each move is actually for.
Read →Aspinall says Round 1 knockout. Masvidal says Ferrari with a quarter tank. Belal, Mendes and Matt Brown all land somewhere in between. Here's every UFC 329 take, sorted.
Read →McGregor's back Saturday after 1,827 days, the fight world is split on it, and the model won't fake a read. UFC 329 week, plus the bookings and where our numbers stand.
Read →Our model went 11-2 on winners in Baku, one of its better cards of the year. It still missed twice: the main event it graded a coin flip, and a high-confidence pick that got submitted in the first round.
Read →GSP gives the welterweight champ the edge over Garry; one division down, Pimblett and Tsarukyan's camp pull the contender debate in opposite directions.
Read →UFC 329 is set for July 11 with start times and the full card out. Dan Hooker tips his cap, Georges St-Pierre talks "hell zone," and Justin Gaethje wants a seat. Here is the honest read, including why we will not hand you a percentage.
Read →Baku's done and the model graded its misses; McGregor-Holloway fight week is here; and a referee is still the story. The day's threads and where our numbers stand.
Read →The UFC sold Freedom 250 as a viewership event. A week on, the figures depend on which figure you pick, and the one White says matters most is not out yet.
Read →The No. 3 bantamweight called Song a "punching bag." On the same January card we modeled Song's O'Malley loss as a near coin flip.
Read →The Predator says a Rico Verhoeven crossover is "what I have in mind for right now." The UFC superfight everyone wants is still a fan poll with no contract behind it.
Read →We finished grading every 2026 card with a prediction: 67.4% across 187 calls, hits and misses. Plus Baku week, the McGregor-Holloway build, and the White House fallout.
Read →The former middleweight champ opens around -340 over a welterweight legend moving up. The odds gap is the story; our model hasn't priced this one.
Read →An Azerbaijani lightweight tops UFC Fight Night 280, but our model and the recent records both lean toward the younger finisher across the cage.
Read →Bisping and Pimblett both point to one number on Conor McGregor's side. We'd point to the five years no one can model.
Read →Retire Gaethje, push McGregor into the "hell zone," defend Zahabi's plan. Different fighters, one throughline from a man who walked away on top.
Read →Justin Gaethje turned down Arman Tsarukyan's $5.7 million-funded gift and floated a different ask: an ownership stake in the UFC. One is a feud. The other is a fighter-pay argument the sport keeps circling back to.
Read →Kape erased a 2017 loss to Kyoji Horiguchi with a third-round knockout at UFC Vegas 119, then asked for Joshua Van. Our model went 9 of 12 on the night, but its one LOCK lost.
Read →An AI ranking system debuts Monday alongside the media panel. As a data-led desk, we know the parts that will work and the parts that won't.
Read →Vinicius Oliveira built a strong run before a recent stumble; Andre Fili is the 26-fight veteran who tests everyone.
Read →A reported $100 million ask kept Trevor Wittman's gloves out of the cage, while Dana White called Tom Aspinall's deal with a boxing promoter "insane." Both fights run on the same question: who captures the value in a UFC bout.
Read →Manel Kape is finishing everyone in front of him. Kyoji Horiguchi is two wins into a return nine years in the making.
Read →A prospect-heavy card with a flyweight headliner that pits the division's hottest finisher against its best return story.
Read →After six months of leaks and a cryptic Instagram jab, the UFC made it official Saturday night: Dricus du Plessis returns against a former welterweight king moving up to chase a second belt.
Read →Navajo Stirling is 4-0 in the UFC; Ion Cutelaba has seen everything the light heavyweight division can throw at him.
Read →Our data sweep for the sport's biggest return arcs surfaced one gap that dwarfs the rest: 3,290 days between Octagon appearances.
Read →Melsik Baghdasaryan looks to recover from a brutal knockout; his opponent arrives with no UFC tape.
Read →Both men need a result — and a common opponent hangs over the matchup.
Read →Two top-five light heavyweights, both off losses to elite competition, fight to lead a scrambled division. FightIQ has no model number for this card yet, so this runs on verified records and market context.
Read →Two title fights and a flyweight eliminator are signed for Philadelphia on Aug. 15. The rest is still rumor, including a light heavyweight bout the reporting suggests may not even fit.
Read →Makhachev put a $20M figure on the superfight that collapsed, while pouring his own money into padel and warning the UFC's pay could cost it Usman Nurmagomedov.
Read →Kyoji Horiguchi submitted Kape in 2017 on his way to winning a Grand Prix in one night. Kape turned down a wait for the belt to run it back at the APEX.
Read →The new lightweight champion says he doesn't want a Topuria rematch. A revenge fight, a megastar and a snubbed No. 1 contender are all circling.
Read →Three feeder-circuit cards, one weekend, all on UFC Fight Pass: Andreeas Binder's Manchester statement, an ex-Falcon's 11-second title KO, and a four-second finish that beat Masvidal's UFC record.
Read →The No. 15 bantamweight says the division won't die when Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes exit. The honest version of her case is more interesting than the headline.
Read →Our headline pick got knocked out — and the honest read is the model was never as sure as its HIGH-confidence label looked. We also called the Gane upset the market didn't.
Read →The lightweight title, outdoors, with GOAT stakes — and a near-5-to-1 underdog selling belief.
Read →Rashad Evans def. Dan Henderson — Split Decision (3 rounds), Light Heavyweight The numbers twist: He landed fewer significant strikes — and still won.…
Read →Mauricio Ruffy is a massive favorite over Michael Chandler — the numbers see a changing of the guard.
Read →A heavyweight-debut interim title shot at becoming the first-ever three-division champion, in a fight the numbers call a coin flip.
Read →Sean O'Malley is a heavy betting favorite over Aiemann Zahabi — but the numbers see a much tighter fight.
Read →The wrestling phenom is the favorite, but Kyle Daukaus is dangerous and on a roll.
Read →Diego Lopes is the slight favorite over red-hot Steve Garcia — the model calls it a toss-up.
Read →Josh Hokit is the favorite over knockout legend Derrick Lewis — and the resume backs it.
Read →Two titles, a three-division bid, and a card where the model breaks from the market in three spots.
Read →The most-hyped card in UFC history is also its most debated — an outdoor title night tied to America 250.
Read →A lightweight title unification on the White House lawn — with one man chasing GOAT status and the other a near-5-to-1 underdog selling belief.
Read →A heavyweight debut for the interim title — and a shot at becoming the UFC's first-ever three-division champion.
Read →Two lightweights on win streaks — one a polished veteran finding his finish, the other an Australian still without a UFC loss.
Read →A five-round decision over Belal Muhammad caps a finish-heavy night — and confirms the read that the welterweight division has moved on.
Read →9 of 12 in Vegas. This column always leads with the three we missed — including the model/market divergence we told you to watch.
Read →Bruno Silva and Edgar Chairez meet in a fight the model can't separate.
Read →Belal Muhammad headlines as the betting underdog against surging Gabriel Bonfim — a sign of how fast the welterweight ground has shifted under him.
Read →The polarizing Bryce Mitchell is a near-even favorite against unbeaten prospect Santiago Luna — but FightIQ's model quietly sides with the youngster.
Read →A proven bantamweight against a newcomer — with the model less sure than the line.
Read →Alessandro Costa is a heavy favorite over the durable-but-fading Matt Schnell.
Read →Jeisla Chaves is a clear favorite over Yuneisy Duben in a fight with thin UFC tape.
Read →Chelsea Chandler and Priscila Cachoeira both arrive needing a result.
Read →Ketlen Souza meets Ariane Carnelossi with the model and market aligned.
Read →Joanderson Brito and Jordan Leavitt is a near-even clash of opposite styles.
Read →Iwo Baraniewski is a massive betting favorite over Junior Tafa — but FightIQ's model rates it a toss-up.
Read →Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan are both surging — something has to give in the co-main.
Read →Part of Macau's wave of regional debutants — the kind of fight where the honest answer is 'we'll find out.'
Read →The co-main pairs a Chinese knockout artist on home soil with an American banger — and both are coming off knockout losses.
Read →A second-round submission caps a homecoming statement, while the crowd watched two of its favorites get upset on the way there.
Read →A 14-day turnaround for Gurule against a Japanese prospect whose only loss came to a future champion.
Read →For the first time since 2018, the 'Kung Fu Kid' fights in China — and a walk-down at the weigh-in face-off set the tone.
Read →Both Alex Perez and Sumudaerji have faced Charles Johnson — with opposite results that hint at the gap between them.
Read →Sergei Pavlovich has won his last two by decision — a long way from his six-straight-knockout peak. Tallison Teixeira thinks that drift is his opening.
Read →A late-notice welterweight scrap between an Australian mainstay and a finisher who hasn't fought in over a year.
Read →Loma Lookboonmee's clinch and control meet Jaqueline Amorim's first-rate submission hunting.
Read →Two debutants with thin résumés — one a Korean banger, one a Brazilian submission specialist — in a genuine coin-flip.
Read →Former ONE queenpin Xiong Jingnan arrives in a strawweight division 'desperate for new contenders' — and a veteran gatekeeper stands in the way.
Read →At 38 and 1-3 in his last four, the former two-time champion arrives in Macau talking about fighting until 43 — and about where he ranks among the flyweight greats.
Read →A former Rizin champion winless in the UFC drops to bantamweight against a fighter who hasn't won since 2024.
Read →A nine-fight Octagon veteran coming off a first-round knockout meets a bantamweight who's perfect but barely tested.
Read →Allen's jab, wrestling, and nine-plus minutes of control time shut out a confident Melquizael Costa at UFC Vegas 117
Read →UFC 328 went 9 for 12 on our card, but the main event was the one we were most sure about, and we had it wrong.
Read →Carlos Prates stopped Jack Della Maddalena in the third round of a fight our model called a coin flip. Here is how every pick graded out, headliner included.
Read →A 5-of-12 night with zero flagged picks and a wrong call on the headliner. We grade it straight.
Read →Mike Malott stopped Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO in the main event, a result our model flagged at high confidence despite giving Malott just a 22% win probability. The rest of the card was a coin flip: 7 of 12, 58%.
Read →UFC 327 ran on first-round finishes, and the night that buried our headliner pick also dragged the card grade to 55%. Here are the numbers, the miss included.
Read →A 6-of-13 night at UFC Fight Night 272, with two first-round finishes landing as called and the headliner pick missing outright.
Read →Tyrell Fortune went the distance to beat Marcin Tybura in the headliner our model had backing Tybura. The card hit 58% overall, and our flagged top picks split 2-of-4.
Read →UFC Fight Night: Jones vs Sola handed our predictions one of their cleaner nights of 2026: 85% accuracy, a perfect 4-for-4 on flagged picks, and a correct read on a main event we openly called a toss-up.
Read →A 12-of-14 night at 86% accuracy, with the main event called correctly. We grade every pick, including the flagged ones that didn't land.
Read →The model picked Alberto Montes against the odds and he submitted Ricky Turcios in Round 2. The rest of the card was a softer night, and we grade it in full.
Read →Javier Reyes ran against the read in the UFC Fight Night main event and won by first-round KO. Our model had him at 31% and still picked him, went 5 for 5 on its flagged calls, and graded 11 of 13 on the night.
Read →A three-round decision sank a HIGH-confidence pick at UFC Fight Night on Feb. 21, headlining a 9-for-14 night for the model. Here's the grade, misses included.
Read →The model named a 17% underdog as the winner, and he won. All three flagged picks landed too. Here is the full grade, misses included.
Read →Dom Mar Fan took a three-round decision over Sangwook Kim, and our model called all three of its high-confidence picks correct on a 77% night.
Read →A clean 5-for-5 on LOCK and HIGH picks carried an 8-of-11 night on the Acosta-Lewis card. Here is the card grade, the headliner call, and where the model stood.
Read →Headlines from around MMA — external links, not FightIQ reporting. Each item is a headline and a one-line extract, credited to the publisher and linked straight back to them. 30 newest · updated 01 Sep 08:39 UTC
Sources: Bloody Elbow · Sherdog · MMA Junkie · MMA Fighting · UFC.com. We reproduce no article bodies and host no publisher images; every headline above opens on the original site. FightIQ's own reporting is above this line, and only above this line.