9:38
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse
Lightweight · 5 rounds
The model's pick is Salahdine Parnasse over Dan Hooker at 59% confidence — a lean.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 42% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 22%, decision 36%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 31% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:38.
That read carries 22.6pp of edge below the market on Salahdine Parnasse.
Live on Polymarket, Salahdine Parnasse is priced around 82%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Salahdine Parnasse's implied chance moved up from 80% to 82% (+1.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker — sportsbook consensus | 21.4% | 18.1% | 21.7% | 18.5% | −2.9pp |
| Salahdine Parnasse — sportsbook consensus | 78.6% | 78.3% | 82.0% | 81.5% | +2.8pp |
| Dan Hooker — Polymarket | 19.5% | 18.5% | 20.0% | 18.5% | −1.0pp |
| Salahdine Parnasse — Polymarket | 80.5% | 80.0% | 81.5% | 81.5% | +1.0pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 42% | 43% |
| SUB YES | 22% | 43% |
| DEC YES | 36% | 13% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 31% | 13% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 65% | 44% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 45% | 44% |
| OVER 3.5 ROUNDS | 29% | 27% |
| OVER 4.5 ROUNDS | 23% | 38% |
The facts, side by side — Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse.
| 24-14 | Record | 23-2 |
| The Hangman | Nickname | — |
| 6' 0" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 75.0" | Reach | 73.0" |
| Switch | Stance | — |
| 36 | Age | 28 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| New Zealand | Nationality | France |
| Auckland | Hometown | — |
| City Kickboxing | Fighting out of | Atch Academy |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Dan Hooker (left) vs Salahdine Parnasse (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 0" switch knockout puncher campaigning at Lightweight. 14 UFC wins — 7 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 5 decision.
No profile written for Salahdine Parnasse yet. We would rather leave this empty than fill it.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →