8:39
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann
Heavyweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Mario Pinto over Ryan Spann at 77% confidence — a lock.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 44% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 29%, decision 27%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 30% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 8:39.
That read carries 4.4pp of edge above the market on Mario Pinto.
Live on Polymarket, Mario Pinto is priced around 72%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Mario Pinto's implied chance moved up from 70% to 72% (+1.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pinto — sportsbook consensus | 69.2% | 69.2% | 72.3% | 72.2% | +2.9pp |
| Ryan Spann — sportsbook consensus | 30.8% | 27.7% | 30.8% | 27.8% | −2.9pp |
| Mario Pinto — Polymarket | 70.5% | 70.0% | 72.0% | 71.5% | +1.0pp |
| Ryan Spann — Polymarket | 29.5% | 28.0% | 30.0% | 28.5% | −1.0pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 44% | 44% |
| SUB YES | 29% | 44% |
| DEC YES | 27% | 12% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 30% | 12% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 58% | 42% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 39% | 42% |
The facts, side by side — Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann.
| 12-0 | Record | 24-11 |
| — | Nickname | Superman |
| 6' 5" | Height | 6' 5" |
| 79.0" | Reach | 79.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 28 | Age | 35 |
| 265 lbs. | Weight | 205 lbs. |
| Portugal | Nationality | United States |
| Lisbon | Hometown | Beaumont, Texas |
| Urban Warriors | Fighting out of | Fortis MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mario Pinto3 UFC fights · 76 landed
Ryan Spann16 UFC fights · 304 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mario Pinto
Ryan Spann
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.77 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Mario Pinto (left) vs Ryan Spann (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 5" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Heavyweight. 3 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 1 decision.
6' 5" orthodox submission grappler campaigning at Heavyweight. 10 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 4 submission, 2 decision.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →