7:25
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev
Middleweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Michael Page over Nursulton Ruziboev at 53% confidence — a coin-flip.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 43% (KO/TKO 43%, submission 19%, decision 38%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 28% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:25.
That read carries 6.8pp of edge below the market on Michael Page.
Live on Polymarket, Michael Page is priced around 62%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model.
No market price history has been captured for this bout yet. We show nothing rather than draw a line that was never there — the chart appears once a market opens and our poller has banked a few snapshots.
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 43% | 30% |
| SUB YES | 19% | 30% |
| DEC YES | 38% | 41% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 28% | 41% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 56% | 30% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 34% | 36% |
The facts, side by side — Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev.
| 25-3 | Record | 37-9-2 |
| Venom | Nickname | Black |
| 6' 3" | Height | 6' 5" |
| 79.0" | Reach | 76.0" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 39 | Age | 32 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| England | Nationality | Uzbekistan |
| London | Hometown | Tashkent |
| London Shootfighters | Fighting out of | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Michael Page5 UFC fights · 161 landed
Nursulton Ruziboev6 UFC fights · 105 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Michael Page
Nursulton Ruziboev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Michael Page (left) vs Nursulton Ruziboev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 3" switch decision fighter campaigning at Middleweight. 4 UFC wins — 4 decision.
6' 5" orthodox power striker campaigning at Middleweight. 5 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →