7:10
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro
Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Delphine Benouaich over Sofia Montenegro at 54% confidence — a coin-flip.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 45% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%, decision 45%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 31% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:10.
That read carries 4.6pp of edge below the market on Delphine Benouaich.
Live on Polymarket, Delphine Benouaich is priced around 58%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
The price on Delphine Benouaich has barely moved across this window — 58% at the open, 58% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delphine Benouaich — sportsbook consensus | 58.3% | 58.3% | 60.6% | 58.3% | +0.0pp |
| Sofia Montenegro — sportsbook consensus | 41.7% | 39.4% | 41.7% | 41.7% | −0.0pp |
| Delphine Benouaich — Polymarket | 58.5% | 56.0% | 63.5% | 58.5% | −0.0pp |
| Sofia Montenegro — Polymarket | 41.5% | 36.5% | 44.0% | 41.5% | −0.0pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 22% | 29% |
| SUB YES | 32% | 29% |
| DEC YES | 45% | 43% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 31% | 43% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 62% | 30% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 35% | 41% |
The facts, side by side — Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro.
| 7-2 | Record | 6-2 |
| 5' 4" | Height | 5' 6" |
| — | Reach | 67.0" |
| — | Stance | Orthodox |
| — | Age | 27 |
| 115 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| France | Nationality | Argentina |
| — | Hometown | Cordoba |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Delphine Benouaich (left) vs Sofia Montenegro (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
No profile written for Delphine Benouaich yet. We would rather leave this empty than fill it.
5' 6" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Flyweight.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →