12:12
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel Wood
Featherweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Mairon Santos over Nathaniel Wood at 61% confidence — a lean.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 62% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 12%, decision 62%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 61% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 12:12.
That read carries 6.9pp of edge above the market on Mairon Santos.
Live on Polymarket, Mairon Santos is priced around 50%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Mairon Santos's implied chance moved up from 50% to 50% (+0.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairon Santos — sportsbook consensus | 54.4% | 54.4% | 54.4% | 54.4% | −0.0pp |
| Nathaniel Wood — sportsbook consensus | 45.6% | 45.6% | 45.6% | 45.6% | −0.0pp |
| Mairon Santos — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | 50.5% | +0.5pp |
| Nathaniel Wood — Polymarket | 50.0% | 47.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | −0.5pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 26% | 33% |
| SUB YES | 12% | 33% |
| DEC YES | 62% | 33% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 61% | 33% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 83% | 33% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 68% | 33% |
The facts, side by side — Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel Wood.
| 18-1 | Record | 23-6 |
| The Legend | Nickname | The Prospect |
| 5' 7" | Height | 5' 6" |
| 72.0" | Reach | 69.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 26 | Age | 33 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | England |
| Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro | Hometown | London |
| Xtreme Couture | Fighting out of | Great Britain Top Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mairon Santos4 UFC fights · 156 landed
Nathaniel Wood14 UFC fights · 1,069 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mairon Santos
Nathaniel Wood
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.73 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Mairon Santos (left) vs Nathaniel Wood (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 7" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 4 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 2 decision.
5' 6" orthodox volume striker campaigning at Featherweight. 11 UFC wins — 3 submission, 8 decision.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →