9:16
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek
Featherweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Kurtis Campbell over Trevor Peek at 74% confidence — a lock.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 47% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 23%, decision 47%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 42% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:16.
That read carries 1.0pp of edge below the market on Kurtis Campbell.
Live on Polymarket, Kurtis Campbell is priced around 76%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Kurtis Campbell's implied chance moved up from 75% to 76% (+1.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell — sportsbook consensus | 74.0% | 73.9% | 75.5% | 75.5% | +1.5pp |
| Trevor Peek — sportsbook consensus | 26.0% | 24.5% | 26.1% | 24.5% | −1.5pp |
| Kurtis Campbell — Polymarket | 75.0% | 73.5% | 76.5% | 76.5% | +1.5pp |
| Trevor Peek — Polymarket | 25.0% | 23.5% | 26.5% | 23.5% | −1.5pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 30% | 41% |
| SUB YES | 23% | 40% |
| DEC YES | 47% | 19% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 42% | 19% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 64% | 51% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 55% | 39% |
The facts, side by side — Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek.
| 8-1 | Record | 9-3 |
| 5' 9" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 72.0" | Reach | 70.0" |
| Switch | Stance | Switch |
| 24 | Age | 31 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| England | Nationality | United States |
| Liverpool, Merseyside | Hometown | Pisgah, Alabama |
| The MMA Academy Liverpool | Fighting out of | Agoge Combatives |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kurtis Campbell1 UFC fights · 17 landed
Limited sampleTrevor Peek5 UFC fights · 265 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kurtis Campbell
Trevor Peek
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Kurtis Campbell (left) vs Trevor Peek (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 9" switch wrestler campaigning at Featherweight.
5' 9" switch all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 decision.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →