5:36
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos
Middleweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Matthieu Duclos over Luis Felipe Dias at 50% confidence — a coin-flip.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 42% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 24%, decision 33%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 22% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 5:36.
That read carries 0.9pp of edge below the market on Matthieu Duclos.
Live on Polymarket, Matthieu Duclos is priced around 52%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model.
No market price history has been captured for this bout yet. We show nothing rather than draw a line that was never there — the chart appears once a market opens and our poller has banked a few snapshots.
Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 42% | 43% |
| SUB YES | 24% | 43% |
| DEC YES | 33% | 14% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 22% | 14% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 48% | 44% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 23% | 44% |
The facts, side by side — Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos.
| 18-5 | Record | 6-3 |
| 5' 10" | Height | 6' 3" |
| 74.0" | Reach | 77.0" |
| — | Stance | Orthodox |
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | — |
| Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo | Hometown | — |
| Parana Vale Tudo | Fighting out of | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Luis Felipe Dias
Matthieu Duclos
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Luis Felipe Dias (left) vs Matthieu Duclos (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" wrestler campaigning at Middleweight. 1 UFC win — 1 KO/TKO.
6' 3" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Middleweight.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →