8:25
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov
Featherweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Losene Keita over Muhammad Naimov at 62% confidence — a lean.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 45% (KO/TKO 33%, submission 22%, decision 45%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 41% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 8:25.
That read carries 10.4pp of edge below the market on Losene Keita.
Live on Polymarket, Losene Keita is priced around 74%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
The price on Losene Keita has barely moved across this window — 74% at the open, 74% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Losene Keita — sportsbook consensus | 70.1% | 70.1% | 73.6% | 73.6% | +3.5pp |
| Muhammad Naimov — sportsbook consensus | 29.9% | 26.4% | 29.9% | 26.4% | −3.5pp |
| Losene Keita — Polymarket | 74.5% | 73.0% | 74.5% | 74.5% | −0.0pp |
| Muhammad Naimov — Polymarket | 25.5% | 25.5% | 27.0% | 25.5% | −0.0pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 33% | 37% |
| SUB YES | 22% | 37% |
| DEC YES | 45% | 25% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 41% | 25% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 62% | 38% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 48% | 34% |
The facts, side by side — Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov.
| 16-2 | Record | 13-4 |
| — | Nickname | Hillman |
| 5' 7" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 72.0" | Reach | 70.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 28 | Age | 32 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Belgium | Nationality | Tajikistan |
| — | Hometown | Dushanbe |
| Lamiro Fight Club | Fighting out of | Elevation Fight Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Losene Keita1 UFC fights · 52 landed
Limited sampleMuhammad Naimov7 UFC fights · 175 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Losene Keita
Muhammad Naimov
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.73 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Losene Keita (left) vs Muhammad Naimov (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 7" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight.
5' 9" orthodox decision fighter campaigning at Featherweight. 5 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 3 decision.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →