10:51
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere
Featherweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Felipe Lima over Morgan Charriere at 64% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 55% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 16%, decision 55%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 48% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:51.
That read carries 2.3pp of edge above the market on Felipe Lima.
Live on Polymarket, Felipe Lima is priced around 62%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Felipe Lima's implied chance moved down from 65% to 62% (−3.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Lima — sportsbook consensus | 63.4% | 62.0% | 64.6% | 62.0% | −1.4pp |
| Morgan Charriere — sportsbook consensus | 36.6% | 35.4% | 38.0% | 38.0% | +1.4pp |
| Felipe Lima — Polymarket | 65.0% | 61.5% | 66.0% | 61.5% | −3.5pp |
| Morgan Charriere — Polymarket | 35.0% | 34.0% | 38.5% | 38.5% | +3.5pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 29% | 32% |
| SUB YES | 16% | 32% |
| DEC YES | 55% | 35% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 48% | 35% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 75% | 33% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 60% | 39% |
The facts, side by side — Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere.
| 14-2 | Record | 21-12-1 |
| Jungle Boy | Nickname | The Last Pirate |
| 5' 6" | Height | 5' 8" |
| 68.0" | Reach | 69.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 28 | Age | 30 |
| 135 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | France |
| Manaus, Amazonas | Hometown | Poissy |
| Allstars Training Center | Fighting out of | Team Chapa Quente |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Felipe Lima3 UFC fights · 118 landed
Morgan Charriere6 UFC fights · 205 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Felipe Lima
Morgan Charriere
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.73 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Felipe Lima (left) vs Morgan Charriere (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 6" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 submission, 1 decision.
5' 8" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 3 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →