10:34
median time
Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Jhonata Diniz over Tanner Boser at 76% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
That read sits 7.1pp above the sportsbook line's implied 69% on Jhonata Diniz.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 49% (KO/TKO 49%, submission 10%, decision 41%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 41% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:34.
Live on Polymarket, Jhonata Diniz is priced around 68%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 20:12 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: HIGH picks are 69-25 (73.4%, n=94) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Diniz’s first UFC fight in 12 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 41% of the time (377 of 929 fights).
History leans Boser on 1 of these; our model still picks Diniz.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Jhonata Diniz's implied chance moved down from 71% to 68% (−2.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz — sportsbook consensus | 68.9% | 67.9% | 68.9% | 67.9% | −1.0pp |
| Tanner Boser — sportsbook consensus | 31.1% | 31.1% | 32.1% | 32.1% | +1.0pp |
| Jhonata Diniz — Polymarket | 71.0% | 68.5% | 71.0% | 68.5% | −2.5pp |
| Tanner Boser — Polymarket | 29.0% | 29.0% | 31.5% | 31.5% | +2.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser.
| UFC 3-2 | UFC record | UFC 5-6 |
| 9-2 | Pro record | 22-11-1 |
| — | Nickname | The Bulldozer |
| 6' 4" | Height | 6' 2" |
| 79" | Reach | 75" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 254 lbs. | Weight | 245 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | Canada |
| Curitiba, Brazil | Born in | Bonnyville, Alberta, Canada |
| Curitiba, Brazil | Fights out of | Edmonton, Alberta, Canada |
| Santa Fe Team | Camp | Shaved Bears MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jhonata Diniz5 UFC fights · 207 landed
Tanner Boser11 UFC fights · 576 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jhonata Diniz
Tanner Boser
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Jhonata Diniz (left) vs Tanner Boser (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 4" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Heavyweight. 3 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 decision.
6' 2" orthodox power striker campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 5 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 2 decision.