7:35
median time
Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Mandel Nallo over Nate Landwehr at 75% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
That read sits 6.2pp above the sportsbook line's implied 69% on Mandel Nallo.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 57% (KO/TKO 57%, submission 21%, decision 22%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 22% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:35.
Live on Polymarket, Mandel Nallo is priced around 71%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 20:12 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: HIGH picks are 69-25 (73.4%, n=94) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
The price on Mandel Nallo has barely moved across this window — 71% at the open, 71% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandel Nallo — sportsbook consensus | 68.9% | 68.9% | 69.6% | 69.6% | +0.7pp |
| Nate Landwehr — sportsbook consensus | 31.1% | 30.4% | 31.1% | 30.4% | −0.7pp |
| Mandel Nallo — Polymarket | 71.0% | 71.0% | 72.0% | 71.0% | −0.0pp |
| Nate Landwehr — Polymarket | 29.0% | 28.0% | 29.0% | 29.0% | −0.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr.
| UFC 0-1 | UFC record | UFC 5-6 |
| 14-4 | Pro record | 18-8 |
| — | Nickname | The Train |
| 6' 0" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 75" | Reach | 72" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 37 | Age | 38 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| Canada | Nationality | United States |
| — | Born in | Clarksville, Tennessee, United States |
| — | Fights out of | Clarksville, Tennessee, United States |
| Vancouver, British Columbia | Hometown (per Sherdog) | — |
| Tristar Gym | Camp | MMA Masters |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mandel Nallo1 UFC fights · 16 landed
Limited sampleNate Landwehr11 UFC fights · 571 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mandel Nallo
Nate Landwehr
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Mandel Nallo (left) vs Nate Landwehr (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 0" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Lightweight.
5' 9" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Featherweight. 5 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision.