9:16
median time
Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Kyle Daukaus over Marc-Andre Barriault at 76% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
That read sits 9.4pp above the sportsbook line's implied 66% on Kyle Daukaus.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 44% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 27%, decision 28%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 28% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:16.
Live on Polymarket, Kyle Daukaus is priced around 68%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 11 Oct 2026, 09:08 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: HIGH picks are 69-25 (73.4%, n=94) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (354 of 550 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Daukaus is 3 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Kyle Daukaus's implied chance moved up from 67% to 68% (+1.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus — sportsbook consensus | 66.4% | 66.4% | 66.4% | 66.4% | −0.0pp |
| Marc-Andre Barriault — sportsbook consensus | 33.6% | 33.6% | 33.6% | 33.6% | −0.0pp |
| Kyle Daukaus — Polymarket | 67.0% | 67.0% | 68.5% | 68.0% | +1.0pp |
| Marc-Andre Barriault — Polymarket | 33.0% | 31.5% | 33.0% | 32.0% | −1.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault.
| UFC 4-5 (1 draw/NC) | UFC record | UFC 6-10 (1 draw/NC) |
| 17-5 | Pro record | 17-11 |
| — | Nickname | Powerbar |
| 6' 2" | Height | 6' 1" |
| 76" | Reach | 74" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 33 | Age | 36 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Canada |
| Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States | Born in | Gatineau, Quebec, Canada |
| Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States | Fights out of | — |
| Martinez BJJ | Camp | Kill Cliff FC |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kyle Daukaus10 UFC fights · 197 landed
Marc-Andre Barriault17 UFC fights · 995 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kyle Daukaus
Marc-Andre Barriault
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Kyle Daukaus (left) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 2" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Middleweight. 4 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 1 decision.
6' 1" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Middleweight. 6 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision.