12:53
median time
Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Erin Blanchfield over Jasmine Jasudavicius at 81% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
That read sits 11.9pp above the sportsbook line's implied 69% on Erin Blanchfield.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 58% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 22%, decision 58%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 58% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 12:53.
Live on Polymarket, Erin Blanchfield is priced around 72%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 11 Oct 2026, 09:08 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: HIGH picks are 69-25 (73.4%, n=94) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Blanchfield is 10 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Erin Blanchfield's implied chance moved up from 66% to 72% (+7.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield — sportsbook consensus | 68.9% | 68.9% | 70.8% | 70.8% | +1.9pp |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius — sportsbook consensus | 31.1% | 29.2% | 31.1% | 29.2% | −1.9pp |
| Erin Blanchfield — Polymarket | 65.5% | 65.5% | 73.0% | 72.5% | +7.0pp |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius — Polymarket | 34.5% | 27.0% | 34.5% | 27.5% | −7.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius.
| UFC 8-1 | UFC record | UFC 9-3 |
| 14-2 | Pro record | 15-4 |
| Cold Blooded | Nickname | — |
| 5' 4" | Height | 5' 7" |
| 66" | Reach | 68" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 27 | Age | 37 |
| 125 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Canada |
| New York City, New York, United States | Born in | St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada |
| Elmwood Park, New Jersey, United States | Fights out of | St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada |
| Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu | Camp | Niagara Top Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Erin Blanchfield9 UFC fights · 643 landed
Jasmine Jasudavicius12 UFC fights · 505 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Erin Blanchfield
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (3.42 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Erin Blanchfield (left) vs Jasmine Jasudavicius (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 4" orthodox submission grappler campaigning at Women's Flyweight. 8 UFC wins — 4 submission, 4 decision.
5' 7" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Women's Flyweight. 9 UFC wins — 3 submission, 6 decision.