7:55
median time
Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Cristian Perez Gonzalez over Kyle Nelson at 71% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 71% on Cristian Perez Gonzalez.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 45% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 24%, decision 31%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 31% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:55.
Live on Polymarket, Cristian Perez Gonzalez is priced around 72%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 09:11 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Gonzalez’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 12 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 10 or more UFC fights win 42% of the time (67 of 158 fights).
History leans Nelson on 1 of these; our model still picks Gonzalez.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Cristian Perez Gonzalez's implied chance moved down from 72% to 72% (−0.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Perez Gonzalez — Polymarket | 72.0% | 71.5% | 72.5% | 71.5% | −0.5pp |
| Kyle Nelson — Polymarket | 28.0% | 27.5% | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Cristian Perez Gonzalez vs Kyle Nelson.
| — | UFC record | UFC 5-6 (1 draw/NC) |
| — | Pro record | 17-7-1 |
| — | Nickname | The Monster |
| — | Height | 5' 11" |
| — | Reach | 71" |
| — | Stance | Switch |
| — | Age | 35 |
| — | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| — | Nationality | Canada |
| — | Born in | Huntsville, Ontario, Canada |
| — | Fights out of | Stoney Creek, Ontario, Canada |
| — | Camp | House of Champions MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Cristian Perez Gonzalez (left) vs Kyle Nelson (right) — career striking & grappling rates.