Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier Prediction

FightIQ’s read

FightIQ's read: Javad Mahjoub over Joel Faglier at 53% confidence — a lean.

That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 53% on Javad Mahjoub.

Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 46% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 22%, decision 32%) — a lean rather than a call.

The model gives it a 32% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 5:07.

Assembled from the model's own outputs — not written free-hand. If a number isn't in the model, it isn't in this summary.

Prediction

One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.

We predict Javad Mahjoub — 53% confident

Javad Mahjoub 53%Joel Faglier 47%

How it ends (method)

KO / TKO46%

Submission22%

Decision32%

How long it lasts (rounds)

Reaches R253%

Reaches R337%

Goes the distance32%

5:07

median time

+0.0pp

vs sportsbook line

Published 10 Oct 2026, 09:11 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.

By the numbers

UFC debut
UFC debut for both.
How we know →
Age
Faglier is 9 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (413 of 634 fights).
How we know →

History leans Faglier on 1 of these; our model still picks Mahjoub.

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Odds

The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.

Sportsbook line

Javad Mahjoub53% · -125

Joel Faglier47% · +105

bar = implied chance, vig removed

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier.

JM

Red corner JavadMahjoubAlavanca Calgary · Hometown (per Sherdog): Chenaran

VSUpcoming

JF

Blue corner JoelFaglierFaglier's Mixed Martial Arts · Hometown (per Sherdog): Augusta, Georgia

Heavyweight3 roundsPicks published · graded in public after the card

5-0

Record

6-0

35

Age

−10 yr25

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Alavanca Calgary

Gym

Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts

Chenaranhometown, per Sherdog

From

Augusta, Georgiahometown, per Sherdog

Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.

All the vitals, as a table

5-0	Pro record	6-0
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
35	Age	25
Iran	Nationality	United States
Chenaran	Hometown (per Sherdog)	Augusta, Georgia
Alavanca Calgary	Camp	Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Javad MahjoubJoel Faglier

n/a

Striking

n/a

Defence

n/a

Grappling / TD

n/a

CardioNot on the UFC statistical record we read

n/a

ChinNot on the UFC statistical record we read

n/a

Fight IQ

n/a

Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Stats comparison

Javad Mahjoub (left) vs Joel Faglier (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min

0

vs

0

Striking accuracy

0%

vs

0%

Strikes absorbed / min

0

vs

0

Striking defence

0%

vs

0%

Takedowns / 15 min

0

vs

0

Takedown accuracy

0%

vs

0%

Takedown defence

0%

vs

0%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0

vs

0

Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Javad MahjoubFightIQ profileAll-rounder

-- orthodox all-rounder.

Built from Javad Mahjoub’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Joel FaglierFightIQ profileAll-rounder

-- orthodox all-rounder.

Built from Joel Faglier’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Javad Mahjoub’s fighter page →Joel Faglier’s fighter page →The full UFC Edmonton card →Every current pick →

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Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier prediction