10:20
median time
Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Katlyn Cerminara over Mackenzie Stiller at 68% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 68% on Katlyn Cerminara.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 51% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 29%, decision 51%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 51% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:20.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 09:11 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Stiller’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 17 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 10 or more UFC fights win 42% of the time (67 of 158 fights).
Stiller is 10 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).
History leans Stiller on 1 of these; our model still picks Cerminara.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
The facts, side by side — Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller.
| UFC 11-6 | UFC record | — |
| 18-6 | Pro record | 6-1 |
| 5' 9" | Height | — |
| 68" | Reach | — |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 37 | Age | 27 |
| 125 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | United States |
| Quakertown, Pennsylvania, United States | Born in | — |
| Amity Harbor, New York, United States | Fights out of | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Twin Lakes, Wisconsin |
| — | Camp | One Touch Fight Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on her. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Katlyn Cerminara (left) vs Mackenzie Stiller (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 9" orthodox technical striker campaigning at Women's Flyweight. 11 UFC wins — 11 decision.
-- orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Flyweight.