11:58
median time
Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC Edmonton (UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott) · 17 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Melissa Croden over Chelsea Chandler at 77% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
That read sits 8.1pp above the sportsbook line's implied 69% on Melissa Croden.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 56% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 17%, decision 56%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 56% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:58.
Live on Polymarket, Melissa Croden is priced around 70%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 10 Oct 2026, 09:11 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: HIGH picks are 69-25 (73.4%, n=94) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Melissa Croden's implied chance moved down from 72% to 70% (−1.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler — sportsbook consensus | 31.5% | 30.4% | 31.6% | 30.4% | −1.0pp |
| Melissa Croden — sportsbook consensus | 68.5% | 68.4% | 69.6% | 69.6% | +1.0pp |
| Chelsea Chandler — Polymarket | 28.5% | 28.0% | 30.5% | 30.0% | +1.5pp |
| Melissa Croden — Polymarket | 71.5% | 69.5% | 72.0% | 70.0% | −1.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden.
| UFC 3-3 | UFC record | UFC 2-1 |
| 7-4 | Pro record | 8-3 |
| 5' 8" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 68" | Reach | 68" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 35 | Age | 35 |
| 135 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Canada |
| Stockton, California, United States | Born in | — |
| Stockton, California, United States | Fights out of | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Crowsnest Pass, Alberta |
| Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu | Camp | Raven House MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chelsea Chandler6 UFC fights · 195 landed
Melissa Croden3 UFC fights · 190 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chelsea Chandler
Melissa Croden
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Chelsea Chandler (left) vs Melissa Croden (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 8" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Women's Bantamweight. 3 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision.
5' 9" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Women's Bantamweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 decision.