The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomBoth title fights go the distance as our UFC 330 card lands at 6 of 11Two of our four LOCK picks lost, both by submission. The model graded 6 of 11 winners on the Aug. 15 card.
The breakdown
Ian Machado Garry is 10-1 across 11 UFC appearances, and all five of his most recent fights went to the judges, including wins over Michael Page, Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad and a five-round loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov. Islam Makhachev is 17-1 across 18 UFC fights and has won five in a row, four of those in lightweight title bouts and the last a five-round decision over Jack Della Maddalena in a welterweight title bout. The model has Makhachev HIGH; the read is the depth of that recent run.
HIGH tier over a fighter with one career UFC loss means the model sees separation rather than a close call. Makhachev's path is the one his last five wins already describe, controlling where the fight happens long enough for the scorecards or a submission to finish it. Garry's path is length and output over 25 minutes, the same script that carried him past Prates and Muhammad. Most likely method is decision, and the tell is that Makhachev's three finishes in that run landed twice in the first round and once in the fifth, so the danger window never really shuts.
- Makhachev's five-fight run, four of them in title bouts
- Garry's last five all reached the judges
- Garry's path is distance management across 25 minutes
- Five-round main event, decision the likeliest method
- HIGH tier, one of six flagged picks on this card
The breakdown
Gillian Robertson is 14-6 over 20 UFC appearances and has won her last five, stopping Polyana Viana and Marina Rodriguez inside two rounds and outpointing Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Luana Pinheiro and Amanda Lemos. Mackenzie Dern is 11-5 over 16 UFC fights and has won three straight, the last a five-round decision over Virna Jandiroba in a strawweight title bout. The model leans Dern, and it is the second-closest read on the card.
At 53.5% the model is barely separating these two, which fits a matchup where both women have been winning steadily and neither has been solved recently. Dern's path runs through the grappling, the route that produced her submission of Amanda Ribas and her only recent five-round experience. Robertson's path is the finishing pressure that ended Viana and Rodriguez in the second round, applied before Dern settles into a rhythm. Most likely method is decision, and the interesting wrinkle is that Robertson beat Lemos while Dern lost to her, which is the sort of common opponent that reads differently depending on when it happened.
- Robertson on a five-fight run, two of them stoppages
- Dern's grappling the primary route to a finish
- Dern has five-round experience to draw on; Robertson does not
- Amanda Lemos as a split common opponent
- Close read, second-closest number on the card
The breakdown
Jalin Turner is 8-6 across 14 UFC fights, alternating heavily, with first-round knockouts of King Green and of Edson Barboza against stoppage losses to Renato Moicano and Ignacio Bahamondes. Kaue Fernandes is 3-1 over four UFC appearances and has won three straight, knocking out Mohammad Yahya and Harry Hardwick in the first round and outpointing Guram Kutateladze. The model leans Fernandes at 52.7%, the closest number on the card.
This is as close as the model gets anywhere on this card, which suits a matchup where both men finish and both men have been finished. Fernandes' path is the early power that ended Yahya and Hardwick inside a round. Turner's path is exactly the same thing, since his last win was a first-round knockout of Barboza, who also fights on this card. Most likely method is knockout or technical knockout, and the tell is that Turner's recent record swings hard in both directions, which is why the model will not commit here.
- Both men carry first-round finishing power
- Turner's recent results alternate sharply
- Fernandes on a three-fight run since his debut loss
- Lightweight three-rounder, stoppage likely either way
- The closest read on the card
The breakdown
Dustin Stoltzfus is 3-7 across 10 UFC fights and has lost his last two, decisions to Nursulton Ruziboev and Kelvin Gastelum. Mansur Abdul-Malik is 3-1-1 across five UFC appearances, with three wins inside the distance, a majority draw with Cody Brundage and a third-round stoppage loss to Yousri Belgaroui in his most recent outing. The model has Abdul-Malik LOCK at 80.4%, the highest number on the card.
This card carries four LOCK picks, which sits at the very top of what the model ever issues, and this bout is the largest of them. Abdul-Malik's path is the one his record already runs on, getting to a finish early, with a knockout of Dusko Todorovic in the first round and a submission of Antonio Trocoli in the first round to point at. Stoltzfus has the counter-route, having submitted Punahele Soriano in the second and having gone the distance twice in a row against ranked opposition, so the longer this stays live the more his experience matters. Most likely method is knockout or technical knockout, and the tell is that Abdul-Malik's own loss came in the third round, which is the exact stretch Stoltzfus needs to reach.
- Abdul-Malik's finishing rate over five UFC appearances
- Stoltzfus 3-7 in the UFC and on a two-fight skid
- Stoltzfus' path is surviving into deep water
- Middleweight three-rounder, stoppage the likeliest method
- LOCK tier, the biggest number on the card
The breakdown
Edson Barboza is 18-14 across 32 UFC fights, by far the longer tenure here, and has lost three in a row, most recently a first-round stoppage by Jalin Turner. Esteban Ribovics is 4-3 over seven UFC appearances, with a knockout of Terrance McKinney and decisions over Daniel Zellhuber and Elves Brener against a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot. The model has Ribovics LOCK; the read is trajectory.
LOCK tier on a fighter who has lost two of his last three is the model weighting Barboza's decline heavily rather than reading Ribovics as dominant. Ribovics' path is volume in the middle rounds, the shape of his wins over Zellhuber and Brener. Barboza's path is a clean early strike, the way he ended Billy Quarantillo in the first round. Most likely method is decision, and the tell is that Barboza's last two defeats came in different ways, outworked over three rounds by Drakkar Klose and stopped inside one by Turner, which leaves few obvious cracks for him to hide.
- Barboza on a three-fight losing run
- Ribovics 4-3 with recent decision wins
- Barboza's path is landing early and heavy
- Lightweight three-rounder, decision the likeliest method
- LOCK tier, driven by trajectory rather than dominance
The breakdown
Chidi Njokuani is 5-5 across 10 UFC fights and has lost his last two, a first-round submission to Jake Matthews and a decision to Carlos Leal. Joel Alvarez is 8-3 over 11 UFC appearances and had won four in a row, including knockouts of Elves Brener and Drakkar Klose and a decision over Vicente Luque, before a second-round submission loss to Yaroslav Amosov. The model has Alvarez HIGH.
HIGH tier here reads as the model separating two fighters who both just lost, on the strength of what came before the loss. Alvarez's path is the striking that stopped Klose in the first round and Brener in the third, with the reach to keep Njokuani at the end of it. Njokuani's path is his own knockout power, which ended Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in the second round, landed before the grappling exchanges start. Most likely method is knockout or technical knockout, and the tell is that Alvarez's most recent loss came on the mat, a place Njokuani has been finished too.
- Alvarez's four-fight run before the Amosov loss
- Njokuani on a two-fight skid
- Njokuani's path is a clean strike before the grappling
- Welterweight three-rounder, stoppage the likeliest method
- HIGH tier, both men coming off a loss
The breakdown
Donte Johnson is 2-0 in the UFC, submitting Sedriques Dumas in the second round and taking a split decision from Cody Brundage. Eric McConico is 2-2 over four UFC appearances, with split-decision and unanimous wins over Brundage and Rodolfo Vieira against stoppage losses to Nursulton Ruziboev and Baisangur Susurkaev. The model has Johnson LOCK.
LOCK tier on a fighter with two UFC fights to his name is unusual, and it means the model likes the way Johnson has won more than the fact that he has won twice. Johnson's path is the grappling that ended Dumas, carried into the later rounds if the split decision over Brundage is any guide. McConico's path is the durability question, since both of his losses came by stoppage and neither of his wins did. Most likely method is decision, and the tell is that both men own a split-decision win over Cody Brundage, which gives an unusually direct line of comparison for two fighters this early in their runs.
- Johnson unbeaten in two UFC appearances
- Both men hold a split-decision win over Cody Brundage
- McConico's two losses both came by stoppage
- Middleweight three-rounder, decision the likeliest method
- LOCK tier on a short UFC sample
The breakdown
Tresean Gore is 3-4 across seven UFC fights, with all three of his wins coming by submission, the most recent a third-round finish of Azamat Bekoev. Vicente Luque is 17-8 over 25 UFC appearances and has traded results lately, submitting Themba Gorimbo and Kelvin Gastelum in the first round while losing to Joaquin Buckley, Kevin Holland and Joel Alvarez. The model leans Luque.
The model's read is the experience gap, with Luque's 25 UFC fights against Gore's seven, but it is not treating that as settled. Luque's path is the first-round submission game that ended Gorimbo and Gastelum. Gore's path is the same weapon from the other side, since every one of his UFC wins has come by submission. Most likely method is knockout or technical knockout, and the tell is that three of Luque's last five ended by submission in one direction or another, so whoever gets on top first is likely to end it there.
- All three of Gore's UFC wins came by submission
- Luque's 25 UFC appearances against Gore's seven
- Luque's recent results swing between finishes and losses
- Grappling exchanges the likely decider for either man
- Middling read, no clean separation
The breakdown
Lucas Fernando makes his UFC debut. Rafael Tobias is 0-1, having lost a decision to Diyar Nurgozhay in a light heavyweight bout in March. The model leans Fernando, but only just.
At 58.6% this is a thin read, and it has to be, because one side of it is a UFC debut. Fernando's path is the debut going the way debuts sometimes do, with the finishing threat the model expects to be the deciding factor. Tobias' path is the experience gap running the other way, since he has already been through three rounds at this level and knows what that costs. Most likely method is knockout or technical knockout.
- Fernando makes his UFC debut
- Tobias 0-1, a decision loss in March his only appearance
- Tobias' single three-round experience the one concrete edge
- Three-rounder, stoppage the likeliest method
- A thin read
The breakdown
Neil Magny is 24-13 across 37 UFC fights, the longest tenure on this card, and has mixed results lately, stopping Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and submitting Jake Matthews before a first-round submission loss to Yaroslav Amosov. Ramiz Brahimaj is 5-4 over nine UFC appearances, with submissions of Billy Ray Goff and Austin Vanderford in his recent run and a decision loss to Punahele Soriano in February. The model leans Magny.
At 57.4% the model is separating these two on volume of high-level rounds rather than on form, since both men lost their most recent fight. Magny's path is his length and pace over three rounds, with the submission of Matthews showing the finish is still there late. Brahimaj's path is getting to the grappling early, the route that ended Goff in the first round and Vanderford in the second. Most likely method is submission, which is unusual for a read this close, and the tell is that both men's recent finishes and Magny's recent loss all came on the mat.
- Magny's 37 UFC appearances, the longest tenure on the card
- Both men lost their most recent bout
- Brahimaj's path is early grappling
- Welterweight three-rounder, submission the likeliest method
- Close read, form offering little separation
The breakdown
Jeremiah Wells is 5-2 across seven UFC fights spread over several years, with a knockout of Court McGee in 2022 and, most recently, a decision over Themba Gorimbo. Myktybek Orolbai is 5-1 over six UFC appearances and has won three straight, submitting Tofiq Musayev in the first round, stopping Jack Hermansson in the first and outpointing Chris Curtis. The model has Orolbai LOCK; the read is activity and recent form.
LOCK tier here comes from one man having built a run while the other has fought sparingly. Orolbai's path is the pressure that ended Musayev and Hermansson inside a round, and if that does not land he has already shown he can win a full three against Curtis. Wells' path is his own first-round power, the way he took out McGee, applied while Orolbai is still measuring. Most likely method is decision, and the tell is that Wells' two losses came in the two ways this fight is most likely to go, a submission against Carlston Harris and a split decision against Max Griffin.
- Orolbai on a three-fight run with two first-round finishes
- Wells' UFC appearances spread thin across the years
- Wells' path is early power before Orolbai settles
- Welterweight three-rounder, decision the likeliest method
- LOCK tier, driven by recent activity