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Events · Makhachev vs Machado Garry · Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
Red corner LucasFernandoRizzo RVT · Rio de Janeiro
VSSettled
Blue corner RafaelTobiasChute Boxe Monstro · Curitiba, Parana
Light Heavyweight3 rounds15 Aug 2026
The story going in
  • Is 15 points more accurate striking than Tobias.
  • Carries 100 points more takedown defence than Fernando.
10-2
Record
14-3
29
Age
−6 yr23
+1″6' 3"
Height
6' 2"
+6″80″
Reach
74″
Rizzo RVT
Gym
Chute Boxe Monstro
Rio de Janeiro
From
Curitiba, Parana
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Lucas Fernando
58.6% confidentLOW
Method calledKO/TKO 44%
Vs the market−12.8pp
Market had our pick at71%
The fight
Lucas Fernando
WIN✓
How it endedKO/TKO
Round3 of 3
Clock1:10
Called it We called Lucas Fernando at 58.6% and Lucas Fernando won. The method call landed too.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Lucas Fernando27 sig landed
HEAD44%12 of 30BODY41%11 of 12LEGS15%4 of 5
Rafael Tobias7 sig landed
HEAD57%4 of 21BODY43%3 of 3LEGS0%0 of 1
27 of 47
Sig.
strikes
7 of 25
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
0:50
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 26Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 5Clinch 1Ground 1
Round 25:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Fernando
Lucas Fernando28 sig landed
HEAD57%16 of 32BODY18%5 of 6LEGS25%7 of 7
Rafael Tobias6 sig landed
HEAD17%1 of 18BODY33%2 of 2LEGS50%3 of 3
28 of 45
Sig.
strikes
6 of 23
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:07
Control
0:05
1
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 28Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 31:10 of action⚡ 1 KD FernandoEnded 1:10
Lucas Fernando14 sig landed
HEAD64%9 of 18BODY14%2 of 2LEGS21%3 of 3
Rafael Tobias0 sig landed
HEAD0%0 of 8BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed

No significant strikes landed — 8 thrown

14 of 23
Sig.
strikes
0 of 8
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:02
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 12Clinch 0Ground 2
Where it
happened
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Lucas Fernando

Round
3
Clock
1:10
Method
KO/TKO

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Keith Peterson.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Lucas Fernando

3.00takedowns / 15 min
3.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
2.40 / 15m
10.00 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
7.27 / 15m
30%
ACCURACY
33%
1.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
1.60 / 15m

Rafael Tobias

2.40takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.96 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Light Heavyweight

The market story

What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Lucas FernandoRafael TobiasPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias — implied win chance over timeLine chart. Market-implied win chance for Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias from Aug 06 to Aug 15, drawn from Polymarket and the sportsbook consensus. Lucas Fernando moves from 52% to 72% and Rafael Tobias from 48% to 28%. A gold marker sits at the first snapshot in this window — our pick was frozen before the window opened, not at that price.10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Aug 6Aug 8Aug 11Aug 13Aug 15▲ our call: Lucas Fernando (LOW)72%28%

From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Lucas Fernando's implied chance moved up from 52% to 72% (+20.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.

Our published call had Lucas Fernando at 58.6%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 71.5% — our number sat 12.9pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers
SeriesOpenLowHighLast captureMove
Lucas Fernando — sportsbook consensus66.9%64.5%72.3%72.1%+5.2pp
Rafael Tobias — sportsbook consensus33.1%27.7%35.5%27.9%−5.2pp
Lucas Fernando — Polymarket51.5%17.5%72.5%71.5%+20.0pp
Rafael Tobias — Polymarket48.5%27.5%82.5%28.5%−20.0pp
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 2,713 snapshots on file · window Aug 06 12:09–Aug 15 22:30Z · last capture Aug 15, 22:30Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.
← Back to the public record