Neil Magny is 24-13 across 37 UFC fights, the longest tenure on this card, and has mixed results lately, stopping Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and submitting Jake Matthews before a first-round submission loss to Yaroslav Amosov. Ramiz Brahimaj is 5-4 over nine UFC appearances, with submissions of Billy Ray Goff and Austin Vanderford in his recent run and a decision loss to Punahele Soriano in February. The model leans Magny.
The read
At 57.4% the model is separating these two on volume of high-level rounds rather than on form, since both men lost their most recent fight. Magny's path is his length and pace over three rounds, with the submission of Matthews showing the finish is still there late. Brahimaj's path is getting to the grappling early, the route that ended Goff in the first round and Vanderford in the second. Most likely method is submission, which is unusual for a read this close, and the tell is that both men's recent finishes and Magny's recent loss all came on the mat.
What decides it
- Magny's 37 UFC appearances, the longest tenure on the card
- Both men lost their most recent bout
- Brahimaj's path is early grappling
- Welterweight three-rounder, submission the likeliest method
- Close read, form offering little separation