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Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke prediction

Welterweight · Gane vs Hokit · 14 Nov 2026
UFC 12-9 (1 draw/NC) · Pro 17-9-1
VS
UFC 5-2 · Pro 12-5

Prediction

early read
Charles Radtke 60%
40%60%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Age

    Radtke is 7 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (637 of 1,058 fights).

  • Win streaks

    Thompson comes in on 3 straight UFC losses; Radtke comes in off a win. A fighter in that spot wins 40% of the time (46 of 114 fights).

  • Time away

    Thompson’s first UFC fight in 16 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 41% of the time (377 of 929 fights).

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke.

Red corner StephenThompson“Wonderboy”Born in Simpsonville, South Carolina, United States · Fights out of Simpsonville, South Carolina, United States
VSUpcoming
Blue corner CharlesRadtkeValle Flow Striking · Hometown (per Sherdog): Mundelein, Illinois
WelterweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Has dropped 3 straight in the UFC.
  • Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
  • Has finished 6 of 12 UFC wins.
  • Has finished 3 of 5 UFC wins.
17-9-1
Record
12-5
43
Age
−7 yr36
+3″6' 0"
Height
5' 9"
+3″75″
Reach
72″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
+1522
UFC bouts
7
6/1250% of wins
Finishes
+10%3/560% of wins
Simpsonville, South Carolina, United Statesfights out of
From
Mundelein, Illinoishometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 12-9 (1 draw/NC)UFC recordUFC 5-2
17-9-1Pro record12-5
WonderboyNickname—
6' 0"Height5' 9"
75"Reach72"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
43Age36
170 lbs.Weight170 lbs.
United StatesNationalityUnited States
Simpsonville, South Carolina, United StatesBorn in—
Simpsonville, South Carolina, United StatesFights out of—
—Hometown (per Sherdog)Mundelein, Illinois
—CampValle Flow Striking
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtke
69
Striking
64
58
Defence
64
20
Grappling / TD
50
78
Cardio
63
58
Chin
21
57
Fight IQ
52
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Stephen Thompson22 UFC fights · 1,293 landed

66.3%
HEAD
84.8%
23.6%
BODY
5.3%
10.1%
LEGS
9.9%

Charles Radtke7 UFC fights · 151 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Stephen Thompson

0.23takedowns / 15 min
0.23 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.99 / 15m
0.66 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
4.52 / 15m
35%
ACCURACY
44%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.50 / 15m

Charles Radtke

1.99takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.27 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Welterweight

Stats comparison

Stephen Thompson (left) vs Charles Radtke (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
4.05
vs
2.5
Striking accuracy
46%
vs
53%
Strikes absorbed / min
3
vs
2.45
Striking defence
54%
vs
54%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.23
vs
1.99
Takedown accuracy
35%
vs
44%
Takedown defence
63%
vs
100%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.5
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Stephen ThompsonFightIQ profileKnockout puncher

6' 0" orthodox knockout puncher campaigning at Welterweight. 12 UFC wins — 6 KO/TKO, 6 decision.

Built from Stephen Thompson’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Charles RadtkeFightIQ profileAll-rounder

5' 9" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Welterweight. 5 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decision.

Built from Charles Radtke’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

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