This Saturday Buckley vs Malott · Rogers Place Edmonton AB Canada See this week's picks →
Picks · Gane vs Hokit ·

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui prediction

Middleweight · Gane vs Hokit · 14 Nov 2026
UFC 8-1 · Pro 18-2
VS
UFC 3-0 · Pro 11-3

Prediction

early read
Yousri Belgaroui 51%
49%51%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Win streaks

    Belgaroui comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui.

Red corner CaioBorralho“The Natural”The Fighting Nerds · Born in São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil · Fights out of São Paulo, Brazil
VSUpcoming
Blue corner YousriBelgarouiTeixeira MMA & Fitness · Born in Amsterdam, Netherlands · Fights out of Amsterdam, Netherlands
MiddleweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Has finished 2 of 8 UFC wins.
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • 9 UFC bouts deep — 6 more than Belgaroui.
  • Every one of Belgaroui’s 3 UFC wins came inside the distance.
18-2
Record
11-3
−1 yr33
Age
34
6' 1"
Height
+5″6' 6"
75″
Reach
+4″79″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
+69
UFC bouts
3
2/825% of wins
Finishes
+75%3/3100% of wins
The Fighting Nerds
Gym
Teixeira MMA & Fitness
São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil
Born in
Amsterdam, Netherlands
São Paulo, Brazil
Fights out of
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 8-1UFC recordUFC 3-0
18-2Pro record11-3
The NaturalNickname—
6' 1"Height6' 6"
75"Reach79"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
33Age34
185 lbs.Weight185 lbs.
BrazilNationalityNetherlands
São Luís, Maranhão, BrazilBorn inAmsterdam, Netherlands
São Paulo, BrazilFights out ofAmsterdam, Netherlands
The Fighting NerdsCampTeixeira MMA & Fitness
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Caio BorralhoYousri Belgaroui
78
Striking
95
75
Defence
83
42
Grappling / TD
52
66
Cardio
85
95
Chin
75 limited sample
71
Fight IQ
78
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Caio Borralho9 UFC fights · 459 landed

64.9%
HEAD
59.0%
18.3%
BODY
23.6%
16.8%
LEGS
17.4%

Yousri Belgaroui3 UFC fights · 242 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Caio Borralho

1.25takedowns / 15 min
1.25 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.27 / 15m
2.50 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
0.27 / 15m
50%
ACCURACY
100%
0.40 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

Yousri Belgaroui

0.27takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Middleweight

Stats comparison

Caio Borralho (left) vs Yousri Belgaroui (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
3.47
vs
6.44
Striking accuracy
56%
vs
63%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
vs
2.28
Striking defence
60%
vs
63%
Takedowns / 15 min
1.25
vs
0.27
Takedown accuracy
50%
vs
100%
Takedown defence
76%
vs
66%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.4
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Caio BorralhoFightIQ profileDecision fighter

6' 1" southpaw decision fighter campaigning at Middleweight. 8 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decision.

Built from Caio Borralho’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Yousri BelgarouiFightIQ profileVolume boxer

6' 6" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Middleweight. 3 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO.

Built from Yousri Belgaroui’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

Elsewhere on the card

← Back to the picks