The full card, graded
The autopsy · FightIQ NewsroomWe picked 10 of 14 winners in Belgrade and got the method wrong 11 timesThe winner column held up on the Aug. 1 card. The method column did not, for the second card running.
The breakdown
Daniel Rodriguez is 10-4 across 14 UFC fights and comes in on a three-fight win streak, a split decision over Alex Morono, a third-round TKO of Santiago Ponzinibbio and a unanimous decision over Kevin Holland. Uros Medic is 7-3 and has won four of his last five, every one of them a first-round KO/TKO, including Muslim Salikhov and Geoff Neal. The model favors Medic at 66.2% and expects the fight to end by KO/TKO.
Five rounds is the wrinkle in an otherwise simple read. Medic's last four wins all ended inside the opening five minutes, so the model is reading a fight that gets settled early or stops being his kind of fight. Rodriguez's path is surviving that first round and taking a first-round finisher into the deep water where his 14 appearances and three recent wins live. The tell is that Medic has been stopped in round one himself, by Punahele Soriano in January 2025, so the same window swings both ways.
- Medic's last four wins all first-round KO/TKO
- Rodriguez on a three-fight streak and durable over three rounds
- Five-round main event stretches Medic past his usual finishing window
- Medic was stopped in round one himself in January 2025
- Welterweight main event, early exchanges decide it
The breakdown
Jan Blachowicz is 12-8-2 over 22 UFC fights, and the last win on his record came against Aleksandar Rakic in May 2022. Four fights have followed, including a light heavyweight title bout with Magomed Ankalaev that produced no result, a split-decision loss to Alex Pereira and a decision loss to Carlos Ulberg, and none of them are wins. Navajo Stirling is 5-0 in the UFC with three unanimous decisions and second-round stoppages of Bruno Lopes and Ion Cutelaba in his last two. The model has Stirling HIGH at 74.1%.
HIGH here is a trajectory read rather than a stylistic one: five wins and no losses on one side, four fights without a win on the other. Stirling's path is the one he has already walked three times, taking rounds and taking the cards, which is the method the model lands on. Blachowicz's path runs through his 22 fights of octagon experience and the fact that two of those four winless results were close enough to be scored a split and a majority. The tell is that Stirling has stopped his last two in round two while the model still expects this one to reach the judges.
- Stirling 5-0 in the UFC, Blachowicz without a win since May 2022
- Blachowicz's 22 fights of experience against Stirling's five
- Two of Blachowicz's winless results were split or majority calls
- Stirling's last two ended in round two despite a decision read
- HIGH tier, one of the clearer trajectory gaps on the card
The breakdown
Aleksandar Rakic is 6-5 in the UFC and has lost four straight, to Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev and Azamat Murzakanov, the last of those a first-round stoppage in October 2025. Marcin Tybura is 14-10 with 24 UFC appearances, more than anyone else on this card, and his last five have gone loss, win, win, loss, loss, all at heavyweight. The model favors Rakic at 72.4% by KO/TKO.
The model is reading the matchup over the momentum, because the momentum is bad on both sides. Rakic has not won since March 2021 and has been stopped twice since, so the number is built on the level of his opposition rather than his results. Tybura's path is the durability and volume that took Mick Parkin to a full three rounds in March 2025, and 24 fights of knowing how the third round feels. The tell sits elsewhere on this card: Blachowicz, the man who started Rakic's slide, fights on the same night and is the one the model is picking against.
- Rakic on four straight losses, two of them stoppages
- Tybura's 24 UFC fights, the most of anyone on this card
- Tybura's recent five all came at heavyweight
- Model reading opposition quality rather than either man's form
- KO/TKO the expected method for a light heavyweight three-rounder
The breakdown
Dusko Todorovic is 4-6 over 10 UFC fights, stopped in round one twice in his last five and coming off a first-round submission of Jose Daniel Medina in September 2025. Robert Valentin is 1-3, three straight losses before he submitted Julien Leblanc in the first round in April 2026.
The records explain how close this sits. Both men carry more UFC losses than wins and both arrive off a first-round submission win. Todorovic's path is the extra six fights of octagon time and the power that stopped Jordan Wright in 2022. Valentin's path is the one that ended his skid, getting the fight to the mat early before the rounds start counting against him. The tell is that four of Todorovic's last five ended inside the distance, so neither man should plan on the judges.
- Both fighters carry losing UFC records into the bout
- Both are coming off first-round submission wins
- Todorovic has 10 UFC fights to Valentin's four
- Four of Todorovic's last five ended inside the distance
- 52.7%, one of the tightest reads on the card
The breakdown
Gilbert Urbina is 1-3 in the UFC, with all four of his fights ending inside the distance and the most recent a first-round KO loss to Uros Medic in August 2025. Vlasto Cepo makes his UFC debut. The model still favors Cepo at 66.9% and expects a KO/TKO.
Picking a debutant over a fighter with four appearances is a statement about what those four appearances showed. Urbina's path is the one that produced his only UFC win, a second-round stoppage of Orion Cosce in May 2023, and it means being the man who lands first. Cepo's path is untested at this level, and that is the caveat to hold next to 66.9%. Medic, who removed Urbina inside a round last August, headlines this same card.
- Urbina 1-3, and every one of his four fights ended inside the distance
- Cepo makes his UFC debut
- Urbina's only UFC win came by second-round stoppage
- Number rests on Urbina's results, not on anything Cepo has shown in the UFC
- KO/TKO expected, middleweight three-rounder
The breakdown
Milos Janicic and Noah Gugnon both make their UFC debuts. There is no octagon history on either side of this bout to separate them. The model lands on Gugnon at 50.7%, the closest number on the card.
50.7% is as near to even as the model gets here, and it should be read exactly that way. With no prior UFC fights on either side there is nothing in the octagon record to lean on. Both paths are the same path: land first against an opponent nobody at this level has seen. The expected method is KO/TKO, which points to this being settled before the judges get involved.
- Two UFC debutants
- 50.7%, the closest number on the card
- No octagon history for the model to lean on either way
- KO/TKO the expected method despite the even read
- A genuine coin flip
The breakdown
Ludovit Klein is 8-3-1 across 12 UFC fights and 4-1 in his last five, the loss to Mateusz Gamrot and the most recent result a majority decision over Mateusz Rebecki. Tofiq Musayev is 1-1 with two appearances, a first-round submission loss to Myktybek Orolbai and a unanimous decision over Ignacio Bahamondes in March 2026. The model favors Klein at 75.2%, the second-strongest number on the card, and expects a decision.
Experience is doing most of the work, 12 UFC fights against two. Klein's path is the one he used three times in his last five, controlling rounds and taking the cards, and it matches the method the model expects. Musayev's path is shorter but real, because the Bahamondes win says he can handle three full rounds against a live opponent at this level. The tell is that Klein's most recent win came over Mateusz Rebecki, the fighter carrying the highest number on this card.
- Klein 12 UFC fights to Musayev's two
- Klein 4-1 in his last five, decision-heavy
- Musayev's Bahamondes win shows three-round staying power
- Klein beat Rebecki, who tops this card's numbers
- 75.2%, the second-strongest number on the card
The breakdown
Michael Oliveira makes his UFC debut. Oban Elliott is 3-2 across five appearances, winning his first three and then dropping a decision to Seokhyeon Ko and a second-round submission to Jonathan Micallef in January 2026. The model favors Oliveira at 67.6% and expects a decision.
The model is reading Elliott's last two rather than his first three. Elliott's path is the version of himself that outpointed Val Woodburn and Preston Parsons and stopped Bassil Hafez in round three, and he holds all the octagon experience in the bout. Oliveira's path is unproven at this level, which is the caveat that belongs beside 67.6%. The January submission was the first time in five UFC fights that Elliott had been finished.
- Oliveira makes his UFC debut
- Elliott 3-0 to start, then two straight losses
- January submission was Elliott's first UFC finish loss
- All the octagon experience sits with the fighter the model picks against
- Decision expected in a welterweight three-rounder
The breakdown
Borislav Nikolic makes his UFC debut. Mark Vologdin has one UFC appearance, a catchweight bout with John Castaneda in April 2026 that ended in a majority draw, leaving his UFC record at 0-0-1.
There is little here for the model to work with: one octagon appearance between the two men, and it did not produce a winner. 56.4% is a narrow number and it earns a narrow reading. Nikolic's path is a debut and Vologdin's is a single draw, so neither has shown the UFC much to build a read on. The expected method, a decision, fits the one concrete fact available, that Vologdin's only appearance went the full three rounds.
- Nikolic makes his UFC debut
- Vologdin's one appearance was a majority draw, record 0-0-1
- One octagon fight between the two men, and it had no winner
- 56.4% is narrow and should be read narrowly
- Decision expected, matching Vologdin's only three-round outing
The breakdown
Bogdan Grad is 1-2 in the UFC, a second-round TKO of Lucas Alexander in February 2025 followed by a decision loss to Muhammad Naimov and a second-round stoppage loss to Luke Riley. Dennis Buzukja is 1-4 in the UFC. His win was a third-round TKO of Connor Matthews in March 2024, and he is coming off a first-round KO loss to Marcio Barbosa in April.
58.3% is a modest number between two fighters with thin UFC records, three fights for Grad and five for Buzukja. Grad's path is the one that produced the Alexander finish, getting to a stoppage before the rounds start to accumulate against him. Buzukja's path is a recovery from the Barbosa knockout, and he has won once in five UFC fights. Both of Grad's losses came from opponents who got past the first round, and the model still expects this to reach the judges.
- Grad 1-2 across three UFC fights
- Buzukja 1-4 across five UFC fights, his latest a first-round KO loss in April
- Grad's win came by second-round TKO
- Both Grad losses came after the first round
- 58.3% is a modest lean between two short UFC records
The breakdown
Kyle Prepolec is 0-4 in the UFC, decisions against him from Nordine Taleb and Austin Hubbard in 2019 and stoppage losses to Benoit Saint Denis and Drew Dober in 2025. Mateusz Rebecki is 4-4 and has lost three straight, to Chris Duncan, to Ludovit Klein, who also fights on this card, and to Grant Dawson by submission in May 2026. The model has Rebecki LOCK at 84.7%, the highest number on the card.
The tier needs saying plainly. 84.7% is reading the matchup and Prepolec's 0-4 record rather than Rebecki's own recent form, which is three losses in a row. A reader seeing only the label would not know that the fighter carrying the card's top number has not won since October 2024. Rebecki's path is the grappling that got him past Myktybek Orolbai on the cards, and Prepolec's path is that his two 2019 losses both went the full three rounds, so he has been difficult to remove. The tell is the method, a decision, even though both of Prepolec's recent losses ended inside the distance.
- LOCK at 84.7%, the highest number on the card
- Confidence is reading Prepolec's 0-4 record, not Rebecki's form
- Rebecki has lost three straight and has not won since October 2024
- Prepolec's 2019 losses both went the full three rounds
- Decision expected despite two recent early finishes against Prepolec
The breakdown
Hailey Cowan is 0-3 in the UFC, a decision loss to Jamey-Lyn Horth in 2023, a submission loss to Nora Cornolle and a second-round KO loss to Alice Pereira in April 2026. Nina Milosevic makes her UFC debut. The model favors Milosevic at 67.2% and expects a decision.
The number is built on what Cowan's three fights showed rather than on anything Milosevic has done in the octagon, because she has not fought there yet. Cowan's path is a repeat of the Horth fight, the one time she went a full three rounds in the UFC, against an opponent making a first appearance. Milosevic's path is unmapped at this level, and that is the limit on 67.2%. Cowan's last two both ended early, so a debutant may not have to solve three full rounds.
- Cowan 0-3 in the UFC with two early finishes against her
- Milosevic makes her UFC debut
- Cowan has been to a decision once in three appearances
- Number is built on Cowan's results, not on Milosevic's
- Women's bantamweight three-rounder, decision expected
The breakdown
Alexander Poppeck and Jovan Leka both make their UFC debuts. There is no octagon history on either side of this bout. The model has Leka HIGH at 71.5% and expects a KO/TKO.
This flag deserves more skepticism than the label implies. Leka makes his UFC debut, so the HIGH is resting on no octagon history at all, which is a different proposition from a HIGH sitting on top of a visible record. Both paths reduce to the same thing, landing first against an opponent with no UFC fight for anyone to study. The expected method is KO/TKO, on a bout where the model has nothing from inside the octagon to say how either man handles three rounds.
- HIGH tier resting on no UFC history for either fighter
- Leka makes his UFC debut
- Treat 71.5% with more skepticism than the label suggests
- KO/TKO expected with no octagon evidence behind the method
- Nothing in the UFC record separates the two men
The breakdown
Marina Spasic makes her UFC debut. Stephanie Luciano is 2-1 across three appearances, a decision win over Talita Alencar, a split-decision loss to Sam Hughes and a third-round submission of Ravena Oliveira in October 2025. The model favors Luciano at 62.5% and expects a decision.
Three UFC fights against none is the whole of the read, and 62.5% is the suitably cautious version of it. Luciano's path is the one she has taken twice, getting into the later rounds and finding either the cards or the submission. Spasic's path cannot be read from a UFC record, so the caveat that applies to every debutant on this card applies here too. Luciano's only loss was a split decision, which says her three fights have all been competitive rather than one-sided.
- Spasic makes her UFC debut
- Luciano 2-1 across three appearances
- Luciano's only loss was a split decision
- Both Luciano wins came in the later rounds
- 62.5%, a cautious number for an experience gap