Kyle Prepolec is 0-4 in the UFC, decisions against him from Nordine Taleb and Austin Hubbard in 2019 and stoppage losses to Benoit Saint Denis and Drew Dober in 2025. Mateusz Rebecki is 4-4 and has lost three straight, to Chris Duncan, to Ludovit Klein, who also fights on this card, and to Grant Dawson by submission in May 2026. The model has Rebecki LOCK at 84.7%, the highest number on the card.
The read
The tier needs saying plainly. 84.7% is reading the matchup and Prepolec's 0-4 record rather than Rebecki's own recent form, which is three losses in a row. A reader seeing only the label would not know that the fighter carrying the card's top number has not won since October 2024. Rebecki's path is the grappling that got him past Myktybek Orolbai on the cards, and Prepolec's path is that his two 2019 losses both went the full three rounds, so he has been difficult to remove. The tell is the method, a decision, even though both of Prepolec's recent losses ended inside the distance.
What decides it
- LOCK at 84.7%, the highest number on the card
- Confidence is reading Prepolec's 0-4 record, not Rebecki's form
- Rebecki has lost three straight and has not won since October 2024
- Prepolec's 2019 losses both went the full three rounds
- Decision expected despite two recent early finishes against Prepolec