Aleksandar Rakic is 6-5 in the UFC and has lost four straight, to Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev and Azamat Murzakanov, the last of those a first-round stoppage in October 2025. Marcin Tybura is 14-10 with 24 UFC appearances, more than anyone else on this card, and his last five have gone loss, win, win, loss, loss, all at heavyweight. The model favors Rakic at 72.4% by KO/TKO.
The read
The model is reading the matchup over the momentum, because the momentum is bad on both sides. Rakic has not won since March 2021 and has been stopped twice since, so the number is built on the level of his opposition rather than his results. Tybura's path is the durability and volume that took Mick Parkin to a full three rounds in March 2025, and 24 fights of knowing how the third round feels. The tell sits elsewhere on this card: Blachowicz, the man who started Rakic's slide, fights on the same night and is the one the model is picking against.
What decides it
- Rakic on four straight losses, two of them stoppages
- Tybura's 24 UFC fights, the most of anyone on this card
- Tybura's recent five all came at heavyweight
- Model reading opposition quality rather than either man's form
- KO/TKO the expected method for a light heavyweight three-rounder