Daniel Rodriguez is 10-4 across 14 UFC fights and comes in on a three-fight win streak, a split decision over Alex Morono, a third-round TKO of Santiago Ponzinibbio and a unanimous decision over Kevin Holland. Uros Medic is 7-3 and has won four of his last five, every one of them a first-round KO/TKO, including Muslim Salikhov and Geoff Neal. The model favors Medic at 66.2% and expects the fight to end by KO/TKO.
The read
Five rounds is the wrinkle in an otherwise simple read. Medic's last four wins all ended inside the opening five minutes, so the model is reading a fight that gets settled early or stops being his kind of fight. Rodriguez's path is surviving that first round and taking a first-round finisher into the deep water where his 14 appearances and three recent wins live. The tell is that Medic has been stopped in round one himself, by Punahele Soriano in January 2025, so the same window swings both ways.
What decides it
- Medic's last four wins all first-round KO/TKO
- Rodriguez on a three-fight streak and durable over three rounds
- Five-round main event stretches Medic past his usual finishing window
- Medic was stopped in round one himself in January 2025
- Welterweight main event, early exchanges decide it