Round 11 sub attemptEnded 3:20
25 of 53
Sig.
strikes
strikes
20 of 47
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 2
0:00
Control
0:26
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 25Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 20Clinch 0Ground 0
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Stephanie Luciano
62.5% confidentMED
The fight
Stephanie Luciano
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Stephanie Luciano
Round
1
Clock
3:20
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Dejan Tesic.
Takedowns
Takedowns
Stephanie Luciano
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
FightIQ read
Takedowns in the mix
1.30 landed per 15 minutes — −0.33 on the field average — a real part of the arsenal, not the whole of it.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS50
1.30 / 15m−0.33 vs field
ATTEMPTS23
1.83 / 15m−2.59 vs field
ACCURACY89
71%+28pp vs field
SUB ATT38
0.30 / 15m−0.52 vs field
TD DEFENCE80
80%+18pp vs field
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.04 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Ranked in Women's Strawweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Marina SpasicStephanie LucianoPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Stephanie Luciano's implied chance moved up from 76% to 76% (+1.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Aug 01 14:12Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Stephanie Luciano at 62.5%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had him at 76.5% — our number sat 14.0pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Spasic — sportsbook consensus | 26.8% | 24.4% | 31.3% | 31.3% | +4.5pp |
| Stephanie Luciano — sportsbook consensus | 73.2% | 68.7% | 75.6% | 68.7% | −4.5pp |
| Marina Spasic — Polymarket | 24.5% | 23.5% | 25.5% | 23.5% | −1.0pp |
| Stephanie Luciano — Polymarket | 75.5% | 74.5% | 76.5% | 76.5% | +1.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 624 snapshots on file · window Jul 30 11:30–Aug 01 14:09Z · last capture Aug 01, 14:09Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.