Round 11 sub attemptEnded 1:21
6 of 19
Sig.
strikes
strikes
5 of 11
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:40
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 0
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Noah Gugnon
50.7% confidentTOSS-UP
The fight
Noah Gugnon
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Noah Gugnon
Round
1
Clock
1:21
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jason Herzog.
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Milos JanicicNoah GugnonPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Noah Gugnon's implied chance drifted up from 24% to 48% (+24.5pp) over this window. Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Aug 01 16:54Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Noah Gugnon at 50.7%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 48.5% — our number sat 2.2pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Janicic — sportsbook consensus | 56.0% | 47.2% | 57.0% | 50.7% | −5.2pp |
| Noah Gugnon — sportsbook consensus | 44.0% | 43.0% | 52.8% | 49.3% | +5.2pp |
| Milos Janicic — Polymarket | 76.0% | 39.5% | 76.0% | 51.5% | −24.5pp |
| Noah Gugnon — Polymarket | 24.0% | 24.0% | 60.5% | 48.5% | +24.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 793 snapshots on file · window Jul 25 03:12–Aug 01 16:48Z · last capture Aug 01, 16:48Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.