Gamrot vs Salkilld

Billy Quarantillo is 6-5 in the UFC and has lost two of his last three, submitted by Youssef Zalal and knocked out by Cub Swanson in December 2024. Diego Ferreira is 10-7 across 17 octagon appearances, with knockout wins over Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rebecki, though his last two went against him. The model leans Ferreira in a tight one.

This is coin-flip territory between two fighters whose recent results have moved the same way. Ferreira's path is the Rebecki fight, staying patient and finding the finish in the third rather than forcing it early. Quarantillo's path is pace and volume, which is how he outworked Damon Jackson across three rounds. The tell is that both men have been knocked out inside the last two years, so the decision the model expects is far from a safe assumption.

• Both fighters coming off losing recent stretches
• Ferreira's finishes have come late, not early
• Quarantillo's path is volume across three rounds
• Both men knocked out within the last two years
• Close read, coin-flip honesty

Darren Elkins brings 30 UFC fights and a 19-11 record, including a submission of TJ Brown and a decision over Daniel Pineda, with a first-round knockout loss to Julian Erosa in April 2025 as the most recent entry. Yadier Del Valle is 2-1, having submitted Connor Matthews and Isaac Dulgarian in the first round before dropping a unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt. The model takes Del Valle, reading direction over experience.

The gap in octagon time is enormous and the model is looking past it at where each career is heading. Del Valle's path is the one that ended his first two UFC fights, a submission inside the opening five minutes. Elkins' path is depth, taking Del Valle into territory where the shorter record has already cracked once, against Leavitt. The tell is that the model expects a decision from a fighter whose only UFC wins came by first-round submission.

• Elkins carries 30 UFC fights and a 19-11 record
• Del Valle's two octagon wins both first-round submissions
• Del Valle's only loss came when it went the distance
• Elkins' path is taking it deep into the third
• Decision the model's likeliest method

Alexia Thainara is 3-0 in the UFC, having submitted Molly McCann in the first round and then outpointed Loma Lookboonmee and Bruna Brasil across three rounds each. Amanda Lemos is 9-6 with a decision win over Mackenzie Dern on her record but losses in her last two, to Tatiana Suarez and Gillian Robertson. The model has Thainara HIGH, the strongest read on the card.

HIGH tier on the top-ranked read of the night means the model sees a clean structural gap: an unbeaten octagon run against a two-fight skid. Thainara's path is the Lookboonmee and Brasil script, controlling rounds and banking them one at a time. Lemos' path is her power and the fact she has already shared a cage with the division's best, which Thainara has not. The tell is the method: the model expects the scorecards, and the scorecards are where Lemos has lost her last two.

• HIGH tier, the strongest read on the card
• Thainara unbeaten in three octagon appearances
• Lemos has lost her last two, both on the cards
• Thainara's path is round-by-round control
• Lemos' power and top-level experience the live counter

Billy Ray Goff is 1-2 in the UFC, with a first-round knockout of Yusaku Kinoshita and losses since to Trey Waters on the cards and Ramiz Brahimaj by first-round submission. Ty Miller is 1-0 after knocking out Adam Fugitt in the first round in January. The model has Miller HIGH, on the strength of a single octagon appearance.

HIGH tier off one UFC fight is unusual, and it means the model is reading the shape of the matchup more than the volume of evidence. Miller's path is what he already did to Fugitt, finishing inside the opening round. Goff's path is surviving that window and forcing Miller somewhere he has never been in the UFC, past the first five minutes. The tell is that a knockout is the likeliest method here on the basis of exactly one octagon result.

• HIGH tier resting on one UFC appearance
• Miller's only octagon fight ended in round one
• Goff stopped in the first round in his last outing
• Goff's path is surviving early and making it long
• Welterweight three-rounder, knockout the top method

Guilherme Pat and Steven Asplund arrive at the same place from the same direction. Both are 1-1 in the UFC, both won in December 2025 and both lost this spring, Pat by majority decision to Thomas Petersen and Asplund by unanimous decision to Vitor Petrino. Asplund owns the only stoppage between them, a second-round knockout of Sean Sharaf. The model leans Asplund, and that finish is most of the read.

The margin is thin and the model is separating two heavyweights whose records match line for line. Asplund's path is the one that worked against Sharaf, walking Pat down and landing heavy before the fight settles into a grind. Pat's path is length: his UFC win and his loss both went the full distance, and he has shown he can still work in the third.

• Identical 1-1 UFC records, identical recent shape
• Asplund's knockout of Sharaf the model's separator
• Pat's path is making it long and winning the third
• Decision the likeliest outcome, close read either way
• Neither man has a long UFC sample to read, which widens the range either way

Bruno Lopes is 1-2 in the UFC and has been stopped in both of his last two, knocked out by Dustin Jacoby in the first round and by Navajo Stirling in the second. Diyar Nurgozhay is also 1-2, submitted in each of his first two octagon appearances before taking a unanimous decision from Rafael Tobias in March. The model has Nurgozhay by the narrowest margin on the card.

This is the closest read of the 12, and the two light heavyweights match on paper down to the record. Nurgozhay's path runs through Lopes' recent durability, which has not held up under sustained pressure in either of his last two fights. Lopes' path is the one that beat Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, three controlled rounds, which asks Nurgozhay to defend longer than he managed in either submission loss. The tell is that both men's only UFC wins came on the cards while the model's likeliest method here is a knockout.

• Closest read on the card, both fighters 1-2
• Lopes stopped in each of his last two
• Nurgozhay submitted in each of his first two
• Both men's only wins came by decision
• Light heavyweight three-rounder, knockout the top method

Jose Montanha makes his UFC debut. Louie Sutherland is 1-2, submitted by Valter Walker inside a round and knocked out by Brando Pericic inside a round, then a unanimous decision winner over Tai Tuivasa in May. The model leans Montanha, with a knockout the likeliest method.

A pick on a debutant is thinner than the number looks, and the model is working largely from Sutherland's UFC pattern. Montanha's path is early, because both of Sutherland's UFC losses ended in the first round. Sutherland's path is what he found against Tuivasa, absorbing the opening exchanges and dragging the fight into the later rounds, where he won his one decision. The first-round window decides this in either direction.

• Montanha makes his UFC debut
• Both Sutherland UFC losses ended in round one
• Sutherland's win over Tuivasa went the full three
• First round is the decisive window for both paths
• Three rounds, knockout the model's top method

Manoel Sousa is 1-0 in the UFC after stopping Bolaji Oki in the third round in March. Richie Miranda makes his UFC debut. The model favors Sousa, and it is reading the one octagon result it has.

With Miranda yet to fight in the UFC, a single fight is carrying more weight than usual, and the number should be held accordingly. Sousa's path is a repeat of the Oki fight, staying with it through the early rounds until the finish arrives. Miranda's path is unmeasured here, and a debutant who lands clean early can turn this over quickly. Sousa's stoppage came in the third, so patience is the shape to expect from him well before a finish shows up.

• Miranda makes his UFC debut
• Sousa's only octagon result is a third-round stoppage
• One fight carrying the whole read
• Sousa's finish came late, not early
• Three rounds, knockout the model's top method

Gianni Vazquez is 0-1 in the UFC after a unanimous decision loss to Javid Basharat in February. Miles Johns is 6-5 across 12 octagon appearances but has lost his last three, two on the cards and the most recent by submission to Daniel Marcos. The model leans Johns, and the read is experience through a rough stretch.

Picking a fighter on a three-fight skid makes this narrower than the experience gap suggests. Johns' path is the one that beat Cody Gibson and Douglas Silva de Andrade, three tight rounds settled on output. Vazquez's path is to press a pace Johns has not answered lately, since one of those recent losses was a split decision that could have gone either way. The tell is that four of Johns' last five went to the scorecards, so the close rounds decide this.

• Johns has lost his last three UFC fights
• Vazquez is 0-1 with one octagon appearance
• Four of Johns' last five went to a decision
• Johns' path is output across three tight rounds
• Featherweight three-rounder, close rounds decide it

Juliana Miller is 2-3 in the UFC, with a knockout of Brogan Walker and a decision over Ivana Petrovic on one side and a unanimous decision loss to Carli Judice in February on the other. Ravena Oliveira is 0-3, beaten at bantamweight and then twice at strawweight, most recently by knockout against Shanelle Dyer in March. The model favors Miller, reading a fighter who has won in the octagon against one who has not.

The model's read here is trajectory more than any single skill edge. Miller's path is the Petrovic fight repeated, three rounds of steady, unglamorous work in the pockets of the fight she can control. Oliveira's path is something early, since she has been stopped twice and has not yet taken a UFC fight into the scorecards with her hand raised. The tell is that Oliveira's three losses came at two different weights, so there is less of a settled book on her than an 0-3 record suggests.

• Miller has two UFC wins, Oliveira none
• Oliveira stopped in two of her three octagon losses
• Miller's path is three rounds of accumulated work
• Oliveira's losses spread across two weight classes
• Decision the likeliest outcome

Neither Carol Foro nor Gigi Canuto has a UFC record in our data. There are no octagon minutes to compare and no shared opponents to weigh. The model leans Foro, and a submission is the likeliest method.

Two debutants is the least anchored read the model makes on any card, and the number deserves to be held loosely. Foro's path is on the mat, which is where the model expects this to end. Canuto's path is to keep it standing and make Foro fight at range for three rounds. The tell is the method call itself: a submission read between two fighters with no octagon history is built on what they did before the UFC saw either of them.

• Neither fighter has a UFC record in our data
• No octagon minutes and no shared opponents
• Submission the model's likeliest method
• Canuto's path is keeping it standing at range
• Least anchored read on the card