Gianni Vazquez is 0-1 in the UFC after a unanimous decision loss to Javid Basharat in February. Miles Johns is 6-5 across 12 octagon appearances but has lost his last three, two on the cards and the most recent by submission to Daniel Marcos. The model leans Johns, and the read is experience through a rough stretch.
The read
Picking a fighter on a three-fight skid makes this narrower than the experience gap suggests. Johns' path is the one that beat Cody Gibson and Douglas Silva de Andrade, three tight rounds settled on output. Vazquez's path is to press a pace Johns has not answered lately, since one of those recent losses was a split decision that could have gone either way. The tell is that four of Johns' last five went to the scorecards, so the close rounds decide this.
What decides it
- Johns has lost his last three UFC fights
- Vazquez is 0-1 with one octagon appearance
- Four of Johns' last five went to a decision
- Johns' path is output across three tight rounds
- Featherweight three-rounder, close rounds decide it