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Events · Gamrot vs Salkilld · Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller
Red corner Billy RayGoff
VSSettled
Blue corner TyMiller
Welterweight3 rounds8 Aug 2026
The story going in
  • Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
  • Averages 1.8 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Miller.
9-5
Record
8-0
28
Age
−2 yr26
5' 10"
Height
+4″6' 2"
72″
Reach
+5″77″
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
+23
UFC bouts
1
1/1100% of wins
Finishes
1/1100% of wins
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Ty Miller
73.4% confidentHIGH
Method calledKO/TKO 39%
Vs the market−5.7pp
Market had our pick at79%
The fight
Ty Miller
WIN✓
How it endedKO/TKO
Round3 of 3
Clock0:15
Called it We called Ty Miller at 73.4% and Ty Miller won. The method call landed too.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Billy Ray Goff16 sig landed
HEAD38%6 of 19BODY50%8 of 9LEGS12%2 of 3
Ty Miller22 sig landed
HEAD91%20 of 45BODY9%2 of 3LEGS0%0 landed
16 of 31
Sig.
strikes
22 of 48
0 of 8
Take-
downs
0 of 0
2:46
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 9Clinch 7Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 17Clinch 5Ground 0
Round 25:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Miller
Billy Ray Goff8 sig landed
HEAD25%2 of 17BODY38%3 of 4LEGS38%3 of 4
Ty Miller107 sig landed
HEAD91%97 of 154BODY8%9 of 13LEGS1%1 of 1
8 of 25
Sig.
strikes
107 of 168
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:59
0
Knock-
downs
1
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 71Clinch 9Ground 27
Round 30:15 of action⚡ 1 KD MillerEnded 0:15
Billy Ray Goff1 sig landed
HEAD0%0 landedBODY0%0 landedLEGS100%1 of 1
Ty Miller4 sig landed
HEAD100%4 of 5BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed
1 of 1
Sig.
strikes
4 of 5
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:01
0
Knock-
downs
1
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 4Clinch 0Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Ty Miller

Round
3
Clock
0:15
Method
KO/TKO

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jason Herzog.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Billy Ray Goff

1.75takedowns / 15 min
1.75 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.00 / 15m
10.94 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
n/a
16%
ACCURACY
n/a
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

Ty Miller

0.00takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.97 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Welterweight

The market story

What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Billy Ray GoffTy MillerPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller — implied win chance over timeLine chart. Market-implied win chance for Billy Ray Goff and Ty Miller from Aug 03 to Aug 08, drawn from Polymarket and the sportsbook consensus. Billy Ray Goff moves from 24% to 22% and Ty Miller from 76% to 78%. A gold marker sits at the first snapshot in this window — our pick was frozen before the window opened, not at that price.15%25%35%45%55%65%75%85%Aug 3Aug 4Aug 6Aug 7Aug 8▲ we flagged Ty Miller (HIGH) here22%78%

From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Ty Miller's implied chance moved up from 76% to 78% (+2.5pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.

Our published call had Ty Miller at 73.4%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 78.5% — our number sat 5.1pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers
SeriesOpenLowHighLast captureMove
Billy Ray Goff — sportsbook consensus25.3%20.7%25.3%20.7%−4.7pp
Ty Miller — sportsbook consensus74.7%74.7%79.3%79.3%+4.7pp
Billy Ray Goff — Polymarket24.0%20.5%29.5%21.5%−2.5pp
Ty Miller — Polymarket76.0%70.5%79.5%78.5%+2.5pp
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,629 snapshots on file · window Aug 03 08:06–Aug 08 23:57Z · last capture Aug 08, 23:57Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.
← Back to the public record