Guilherme Pat and Steven Asplund arrive at the same place from the same direction. Both are 1-1 in the UFC, both won in December 2025 and both lost this spring, Pat by majority decision to Thomas Petersen and Asplund by unanimous decision to Vitor Petrino. Asplund owns the only stoppage between them, a second-round knockout of Sean Sharaf. The model leans Asplund, and that finish is most of the read.
The read
The margin is thin and the model is separating two heavyweights whose records match line for line. Asplund's path is the one that worked against Sharaf, walking Pat down and landing heavy before the fight settles into a grind. Pat's path is length: his UFC win and his loss both went the full distance, and he has shown he can still work in the third.
What decides it
- Identical 1-1 UFC records, identical recent shape
- Asplund's knockout of Sharaf the model's separator
- Pat's path is making it long and winning the third
- Decision the likeliest outcome, close read either way
- Neither man has a long UFC sample to read, which widens the range either way