Bruno Lopes is 1-2 in the UFC and has been stopped in both of his last two, knocked out by Dustin Jacoby in the first round and by Navajo Stirling in the second. Diyar Nurgozhay is also 1-2, submitted in each of his first two octagon appearances before taking a unanimous decision from Rafael Tobias in March. The model has Nurgozhay by the narrowest margin on the card.
The read
This is the closest read of the 12, and the two light heavyweights match on paper down to the record. Nurgozhay's path runs through Lopes' recent durability, which has not held up under sustained pressure in either of his last two fights. Lopes' path is the one that beat Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, three controlled rounds, which asks Nurgozhay to defend longer than he managed in either submission loss. The tell is that both men's only UFC wins came on the cards while the model's likeliest method here is a knockout.
What decides it
- Closest read on the card, both fighters 1-2
- Lopes stopped in each of his last two
- Nurgozhay submitted in each of his first two
- Both men's only wins came by decision
- Light heavyweight three-rounder, knockout the top method