Billy Quarantillo is 6-5 in the UFC and has lost two of his last three, submitted by Youssef Zalal and knocked out by Cub Swanson in December 2024. Diego Ferreira is 10-7 across 17 octagon appearances, with knockout wins over Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rebecki, though his last two went against him. The model leans Ferreira in a tight one.
The read
This is coin-flip territory between two fighters whose recent results have moved the same way. Ferreira's path is the Rebecki fight, staying patient and finding the finish in the third rather than forcing it early. Quarantillo's path is pace and volume, which is how he outworked Damon Jackson across three rounds. The tell is that both men have been knocked out inside the last two years, so the decision the model expects is far from a safe assumption.
What decides it
- Both fighters coming off losing recent stretches
- Ferreira's finishes have come late, not early
- Quarantillo's path is volume across three rounds
- Both men knocked out within the last two years
- Close read, coin-flip honesty