The full card, graded
The autopsy · FightIQ NewsroomGrading our card in Oklahoma City: 8 of 12We hit the main event and seven others, and missed four.
The breakdown
Dricus Du Plessis is 9-1 across 10 UFC fights, with a knockout of Robert Whittaker, a submission of Israel Adesanya, two wins over Sean Strickland and a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev last August. Kamaru Usman is the longer-serving fighter at 16-3 through 19, though his last five include three losses and his most recent win came over Joaquin Buckley in June 2025. The model has this near even and gives Du Plessis the lean.
The model reads a fighter with the stronger recent record against one with more UFC mileage, and it does not separate them by much. Du Plessis' path is his pace and his awkward pressure, which have carried him through four scheduled five-rounders. Usman's path is the wrestling that built the 16-3 record, and early rounds banked before Du Plessis' volume compounds over five rounds. The tell is Chimaev, who beat both of them by decision, and the layoffs: neither man has fought in close to a year.
- Du Plessis' pressure and volume vs Usman's wrestling base
- Long layoffs on both sides, close to a year each
- Usman's path is winning early rounds and taking the fight to the mat
- Five rounds scheduled, decision the likeliest method
- One of the closer calls on the card
The breakdown
Song Yadong has 17 UFC fights behind him and a 12-4-1 record in them, a bantamweight who has beaten Chris Gutierrez and Henry Cejudo, lost to Petr Yan and Sean O'Malley, and submitted Deiveson Figueiredo in the second round in May. Umar Nurmagomedov is 8-1 through nine UFC appearances, with a five-round decision over Cory Sandhagen and a single loss to Merab Dvalishvili. The model leans Nurmagomedov, and the read is the cleaner record against the more mixed one.
The model sees the deeper resume on one side and the better one on the other. Nurmagomedov's path is the one his record already describes: win rounds on control and volume, and let 25 minutes do the rest. Song's path is landing something heavy while the fight is standing, which is what his best UFC nights have looked like, plus the durability to still be dangerous late. The tell is Deiveson Figueiredo, who both men beat inside the last seven months, Nurmagomedov by decision in January and Song by submission in May.
- Nurmagomedov's control wrestling vs Song's power on the feet
- Nurmagomedov 4-1 in his last five, Song 3-2
- Song's path is a clean shot before the fight settles into a grind
- Bantamweight, five rounds scheduled, decision the likeliest method
- Second-firmest read on the card
The breakdown
Jared Cannonier is 11-9 through 20 UFC fights and 2-3 over his last five, with losses to Nassourdine Imavov, Caio Borralho and Michael Page against a fourth-round stoppage of Gregory Rodrigues. Christian Leroy Duncan is 7-2 through nine and has won four straight, knocking out Eryk Anders in the first round and Marco Tulio in the second before outpointing Roman Dolidze in March. The model leans Duncan, and the read is trajectory.
One fighter is on his best UFC run and the other has lost three of five, and that gap is the model's whole case. Duncan's path is the one his last four fights describe: land clean early, and win the rounds if it goes long. Cannonier's path is power, which produced a knockout as recently as February 2025 and can end any middleweight round. The tell cuts against the read: Rodrigues beat Duncan by decision in 2024, and Cannonier stopped Rodrigues about six and a half months later.
- Duncan's four-fight run vs Cannonier's veteran power
- Form and trajectory both point the same direction
- Cannonier's path is one clean shot in any of the 15 minutes
- Middleweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- Gregory Rodrigues as common opponent argues the other way
The breakdown
Chase Hooper is 8-5 in 13 UFC fights and built his best stretch on the mat, submitting Viacheslav Borshchev and Clay Guida before outpointing Jim Miller. He has since been stopped twice, by Alexander Hernandez and by Lance Gibson Jr. in March. Mitch Ramirez is 0-2 in the UFC, stopped by Thiago Moises, on leg kicks, and by Mike Davis. This is the model's firmest read on the card.
The model sees a grappler with real UFC wins against an opponent still looking for his first. Hooper's path is getting to the mat, where two of his last five results were settled. Ramirez's path is the exact fight that has ended Hooper's last two nights, which is landing clean on the feet inside a round. Decision is the top method, though Hooper's submission threat stays live in every position he gets to.
- Hooper's submission game vs Ramirez's need to keep it standing
- Hooper is 0-2 in his last two, both by knockout
- Ramirez's path is a first-round finish before the fight hits the mat
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- The clearest read on this card, with a visible way it goes wrong
The breakdown
Tabatha Ricci is 7-4 through 11 UFC fights, with wins over Tecia Pennington and Angela Hill, a second-round stoppage of Amanda Ribas last July, and decision losses to Yan Xiaonan and Virna Jandiroba. Fatima Kline is 3-1 through four, having lost her debut and then won three in a row, two of them by knockout. The model leans Kline on recent form.
The model is reading an ascending fighter against a more tested one who has split her recent results. Kline's path is her striking, which produced stoppages of Viktoriia Dudakova and Melissa Martinez before she outpointed Hill. Ricci's path is her grappling and the experience of 11 UFC fights, plus the finishing power she showed against Ribas. The tell is Angela Hill, whom both women beat by unanimous decision, Ricci in August 2024 and Kline in November 2025.
- Kline's striking and finishing rate vs Ricci's grappling and experience
- Kline on three straight wins, Ricci 3-2 in her last five
- Ricci's path is dragging it into a grappling fight and controlling the pace
- Strawweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- A moderate lean rather than a firm one
The breakdown
Tommy Mcmillen and Alberto Montes each arrive 1-0 in the UFC. Mcmillen knocked out Manolo Zecchini in the first round in April. Montes submitted Ricky Turcios in the second round in March. The model splits this one almost exactly down the middle and puts Montes a fraction in front.
With one UFC appearance apiece there is very little for the model to separate, and the output says so. Montes' path is the grappling that produced his win. Mcmillen's path is the power that produced his, and a first-round knockout is the loudest thing either man has on record. Decision is the top method, which is where reads land when neither fighter has given the model much to work with.
- Montes' submission win vs Mcmillen's one-round knockout
- One UFC fight each, no form to lean on
- Mcmillen's path is landing early and repeating his debut
- Featherweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- Tied for the closest call on the card
The breakdown
Austin Bashi is 1-1 in the UFC, having lost a decision to Christian Rodriguez in January 2025 and then submitted John Yannis in the first round that August. Jose Miguel Delgado is 3-1 in the UFC, with first-round knockouts of Connor Matthews and Hyder Amil, a decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in October and a split-decision win over Andre Fili in March.
The model has this close to even. Delgado has the busier record, four UFC fights to Bashi's two, and he fought four months ago against Bashi's 11 months out. Bashi's path is the submission game that ended his last outing inside a round. Delgado's path is the early finish he has shown twice, or a close decision like the Fili fight. Decision is the top method and the margin is small enough that either man can take it.
- Bashi's submission finish vs Delgado's two first-round knockouts
- Bashi 1-1 and 11 months since his last appearance; Delgado 3-1 and four months since his
- Delgado's path is a first-round finish, or a close decision as against Fili
- Featherweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- A thin lean, close to even
The breakdown
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is 1-0 in the UFC, a split-decision win over Phil Rowe in February. Seokhyeon Ko is 2-0, with unanimous decisions over Oban Elliott in June 2025 and Rowe that November. The model leans Ko, though not by a wide margin.
The two men share an opponent. Ko beat Rowe on all three cards in November; Lebosnoyani beat him on a split decision in February. Ko's path is the one he has already used twice, winning three rounds on points. Lebosnoyani's path is a second close decision, which he has shown he can get. All three of the pair's UFC wins went the distance, which is why decision is the top method here.
- Ko is 2-0 in the UFC, both wins by unanimous decision
- Lebosnoyani is 1-0, a split-decision win over Phil Rowe, who also lost to Ko
- All three UFC wins between the two went the full three rounds
- Welterweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- A moderate lean on a short UFC sample for both men
The breakdown
Levi Rodrigues Jr makes his UFC debut. Felipe Franco is 0-1, having lost a unanimous decision to Mario Pinto in March. Neither man has a UFC win. The model splits it and gives Franco the narrowest possible lean.
This is as close to even as the model gets, and the single fact separating the two is that Franco has already been through 15 UFC minutes. Franco's path is that experience and whatever he took from losing it. Rodrigues' path is a debut, and the model's read on the fight was close to a coin flip. The method is the odd detail: this is the only fight on the card where the model's most likely finish is a knockout rather than a decision.
- Franco's one UFC appearance vs a fighter making his UFC debut
- Franco is 0-1 and looking for a first promotional win
- Rodrigues' path is a debut and could go either way
- Three rounds, and the only bout here where knockout is the top method
- Tied for the closest call on the card
The breakdown
Ezra Elliott (listed on the card as Ezra Elliot) and Damien Anderson both make their UFC debuts. There is no prior promotional form on either side to read. The model splits the fight almost exactly evenly and lands on Anderson by the thinnest margin it produces.
With no UFC fights between them, the model has nothing to weigh and the output reflects that honestly. Both paths are the same path, which is imposing a game neither man has shown at this level. Decision is the top method, and that is the default rather than a finding. The useful thing to say here is what the model does not know, which is how either fighter performs on this stage.
- Two UFC debutants, so no stylistic read
- No form, no trajectory
- Either fighter's path is identical and unproven at this level
- Three rounds, decision the likeliest method by default
- Tied for the closest call on the card
The breakdown
Alden Coria is 2-0 in the UFC, stopping Alessandro Costa in the third round last September and outpointing Luis Gurule in February. Stewart Nicoll is 0-3, submitted by Jesus Aguilar, outpointed by Lucas Rocha and stopped by Costa in April. The model has Coria clear, and the read is the win column.
The model sees a fighter who has won both ways in the UFC against one who has not won at all. Coria's path is the pace and finishing he showed in his first two appearances, either route available to him. Nicoll's path is a finish of his own, because in three tries he has not won a round-by-round argument. The tell is Alessandro Costa: Coria stopped him in September, and Costa stopped Nicoll in April.
- Coria's two-way finishing threat vs Nicoll's winless UFC run
- Coria 2-0, Nicoll 0-3 with two stoppage losses
- Nicoll's path is a finish rather than points
- Flyweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- Third-firmest read on the card
The breakdown
RJ Harris makes his UFC debut. Alvin Hines is 0-1, having lost a unanimous decision to Jhonata Diniz in June 2025. Neither man has won in the promotion.
The model is separating a debutant from a fighter whose only UFC result is a loss, and it does not separate them by much. Harris' path is a debut. Hines' path is the experience of having already gone three full rounds at this level, which is the one concrete thing on either side of the ledger. Decision is the top method.
- A debut against a fighter with a single UFC loss
- Hines has been out 13 months since his only UFC appearance
- Hines' path is the round-by-round experience Harris has not banked
- Three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- A narrow lean among the card's closer reads
The breakdown
Anna Melisano makes her UFC debut. Dione Barbosa is 3-2 across five UFC fights, with a first-round submission of Diana Belbita, a majority decision over Melissa Gatto in April, and decision losses to Miranda Maverick and Karine Silva. All five of Barbosa's UFC bouts have come at women's flyweight. The model leans Barbosa.
The model takes the known quantity, and the margin says it does not take her by much. Barbosa's path is the grappling that produced her fastest UFC win. Melisano's path is a debut, and the model's read was close to even. The tell is in how Barbosa loses: both of her UFC defeats went the full three rounds against opponents who out-worked her, so the route through her is winning rounds rather than finding a finish.
- Barbosa's submission threat vs a fighter making her UFC debut
- Barbosa 3-2 and coming off a majority-decision win in April
- Melisano's path is a debut
- Three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- A modest lean, well inside the card's close range