Song Yadong has 17 UFC fights behind him and a 12-4-1 record in them, a bantamweight who has beaten Chris Gutierrez and Henry Cejudo, lost to Petr Yan and Sean O'Malley, and submitted Deiveson Figueiredo in the second round in May. Umar Nurmagomedov is 8-1 through nine UFC appearances, with a five-round decision over Cory Sandhagen and a single loss to Merab Dvalishvili. The model leans Nurmagomedov, and the read is the cleaner record against the more mixed one.
The read
The model sees the deeper resume on one side and the better one on the other. Nurmagomedov's path is the one his record already describes: win rounds on control and volume, and let 25 minutes do the rest. Song's path is landing something heavy while the fight is standing, which is what his best UFC nights have looked like, plus the durability to still be dangerous late. The tell is Deiveson Figueiredo, who both men beat inside the last seven months, Nurmagomedov by decision in January and Song by submission in May.
What decides it
- Nurmagomedov's control wrestling vs Song's power on the feet
- Nurmagomedov 4-1 in his last five, Song 3-2
- Song's path is a clean shot before the fight settles into a grind
- Bantamweight, five rounds scheduled, decision the likeliest method
- Second-firmest read on the card