Dricus Du Plessis is 9-1 across 10 UFC fights, with a knockout of Robert Whittaker, a submission of Israel Adesanya, two wins over Sean Strickland and a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev last August. Kamaru Usman is the longer-serving fighter at 16-3 through 19, though his last five include three losses and his most recent win came over Joaquin Buckley in June 2025. The model has this near even and gives Du Plessis the lean.
The read
The model reads a fighter with the stronger recent record against one with more UFC mileage, and it does not separate them by much. Du Plessis' path is his pace and his awkward pressure, which have carried him through four scheduled five-rounders. Usman's path is the wrestling that built the 16-3 record, and early rounds banked before Du Plessis' volume compounds over five rounds. The tell is Chimaev, who beat both of them by decision, and the layoffs: neither man has fought in close to a year.
What decides it
- Du Plessis' pressure and volume vs Usman's wrestling base
- Long layoffs on both sides, close to a year each
- Usman's path is winning early rounds and taking the fight to the mat
- Five rounds scheduled, decision the likeliest method
- One of the closer calls on the card