Chase Hooper is 8-5 in 13 UFC fights and built his best stretch on the mat, submitting Viacheslav Borshchev and Clay Guida before outpointing Jim Miller. He has since been stopped twice, by Alexander Hernandez and by Lance Gibson Jr. in March. Mitch Ramirez is 0-2 in the UFC, stopped by Thiago Moises, on leg kicks, and by Mike Davis. This is the model's firmest read on the card.
The read
The model sees a grappler with real UFC wins against an opponent still looking for his first. Hooper's path is getting to the mat, where two of his last five results were settled. Ramirez's path is the exact fight that has ended Hooper's last two nights, which is landing clean on the feet inside a round. Decision is the top method, though Hooper's submission threat stays live in every position he gets to.
What decides it
- Hooper's submission game vs Ramirez's need to keep it standing
- Hooper is 0-2 in his last two, both by knockout
- Ramirez's path is a first-round finish before the fight hits the mat
- Lightweight, three rounds, decision the likeliest method
- The clearest read on this card, with a visible way it goes wrong