Picks · Prochazka vs Stirling ·
Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev prediction
Welterweight · Prochazka vs Stirling · 21 Nov 2026
Abdullayev is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).
History leans Abdullayev on 1 of these; our early read still favours Matthews.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev.
| UFC 16-8 | UFC record | UFC 1-0 |
| 23-8 | Pro record | 20-3 |
| The Celtic Kid | Nickname | — |
| 5' 11" | Height | 5' 8" |
| 73" | Reach | 73" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 170 lbs. |
| Australia | Nationality | Azerbaijan |
| Melbourne, Victoria, Australia | Born in | — |
| Epping, Victoria, Australia | Fights out of | — |
| Nexus | Camp | Phuket Top Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jake Matthews24 UFC fights · 925 landed
Tahir Abdullayev1 UFC fights · 37 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jake Matthews
Tahir Abdullayev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.27 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Jake Matthews (left) vs Tahir Abdullayev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 11" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Welterweight. 16 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 6 submission, 8 decision.
5' 8" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Welterweight. 1 UFC win — 1 KO/TKO.