Picks · Prochazka vs Stirling ·
Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega prediction
Lightweight · Prochazka vs Stirling · 21 Nov 2026
Ortega’s first UFC fight in 15 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 41% of the time (377 of 929 fights).
History leans Hooker on 1 of these; our early read still favours Ortega.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega.
| UFC 14-11 | UFC record | UFC 8-5 (1 draw/NC) |
| 24-15 | Pro record | 16-5 |
| The Hangman | Nickname | T-City |
| 6' 0" | Height | 5' 8" |
| 75" | Reach | 69" |
| Switch | Stance | Switch |
| 36 | Age | 35 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| New Zealand | Nationality | United States |
| Auckland, New Zealand | Born in | Los Angeles, California, United States |
| Auckland, New Zealand | Fights out of | Los Angeles, California, United States |
| City Kickboxing | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Dan Hooker25 UFC fights · 1,185 landed
Brian Ortega14 UFC fights · 742 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Dan Hooker
Brian Ortega
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Dan Hooker (left) vs Brian Ortega (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 0" switch knockout puncher campaigning at Lightweight. 14 UFC wins — 7 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 5 decision.
5' 8" switch submission grappler campaigning at Featherweight. 8 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 4 submission, 1 decision.