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Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos prediction

Featherweight · Prochazka vs Stirling · 21 Nov 2026
UFC 18-5 · Pro 26-5
VS
UFC 4-0 · Pro 18-1

Prediction

early read
Kevin Vallejos 55%
45%55%
as of 11 Oct 2026, 09:03 UTC

By the numbers

  • Age

    Vallejos is 12 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).

  • Win streaks

    Vallejos comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 57% of the time (367 of 639 fights).

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Tale of the tape

The facts, side by side — Aljamain Sterling vs Kevin Vallejos.

Red corner AljamainSterling“Funk Master”Serra-Longo Fight Team · Born in Uniondale, New York, United States · Fights out of Uniondale, New York, United States
VSUpcoming
Blue corner KevinVallejos“El Chino”Brothers of Life MMA · Born in Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina · Fights out of Mar del Plata, Argentina
FeatherweightPicks published · graded in public after the card
The story
  • Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
  • Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Has finished 6 of 18 UFC wins.
  • Has finished 3 of 4 UFC wins.
26-5
Record
18-1
37
Age
−13 yr24
5' 7"
Height
5' 7"
+3″71″
Reach
68″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
+1923
UFC bouts
4
6/1833% of wins
Finishes
+42%3/475% of wins
Serra-Longo Fight Team
Gym
Brothers of Life MMA
Uniondale, New York, United States
Born in
Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Uniondale, New York, United States
Fights out of
Mar del Plata, Argentina
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s.
All the vitals, as a table
UFC 18-5UFC recordUFC 4-0
26-5Pro record18-1
Funk MasterNicknameEl Chino
5' 7"Height5' 7"
71"Reach68"
OrthodoxStanceSwitch
37Age24
145 lbs.Weight145 lbs.
United StatesNationalityArgentina
Uniondale, New York, United StatesBorn inMar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Uniondale, New York, United StatesFights out ofMar del Plata, Argentina
Serra-Longo Fight TeamCampBrothers of Life MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Aljamain SterlingKevin Vallejos
80
Striking
82
78
Defence
48
45
Grappling / TD
22
62
Cardio
84 limited sample
63
Chin
76
66
Fight IQ
62
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Aljamain Sterling23 UFC fights · 1,407 landed

49.9%
HEAD
67.5%
31.5%
BODY
22.5%
18.6%
LEGS
10.0%

Kevin Vallejos4 UFC fights · 160 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Aljamain Sterling

2.54takedowns / 15 min
2.54 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.66 / 15m
7.94 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.36 / 15m
32%
ACCURACY
28%
0.60 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

Kevin Vallejos

0.66takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.09 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Featherweight

Stats comparison

Aljamain Sterling (left) vs Kevin Vallejos (right) — career striking & grappling rates.

Strikes landed / min
4.26
vs
6.12
Striking accuracy
52%
vs
48%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.15
vs
4.41
Striking defence
59%
vs
57%
Takedowns / 15 min
2.54
vs
0.66
Takedown accuracy
32%
vs
28%
Takedown defence
44%
vs
84%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.6
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics.

Bios

Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.

Aljamain SterlingFightIQ profileGrappling-led all-rounder

5' 7" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 18 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 4 submission, 11 decision, 1 other.

Built from Aljamain Sterling’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →
Kevin VallejosFightIQ profilePower striker

5' 7" switch power striker campaigning at Featherweight. 4 UFC wins — 3 KO/TKO, 1 decision.

Built from Kevin Vallejos’s own fight record and striking and grappling figures, recomputed for this build. Full profile →

Go deeper

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