Picks · Moicano vs Nolan ·
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan prediction
Lightweight · Moicano vs Nolan · 31 Oct 2026
Nolan is 10 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).
Nolan comes in on a 5-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 57% of the time (367 of 639 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan.
| UFC 13-7 | UFC record | UFC 5-1 |
| 21-7-1 | Pro record | 11-1 |
| — | Nickname | Big Train |
| 5' 11" | Height | 6' 3" |
| 72" | Reach | 73" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 37 | Age | 26 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| — | Nationality | Australia |
| — | Born in | Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia |
| — | Fights out of | Brisbane, Australia |
| — | Camp | Team Compton Training Centre |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Renato Moicano20 UFC fights · 771 landed
Tom Nolan6 UFC fights · 255 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Renato Moicano
Tom Nolan
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Renato Moicano (left) vs Tom Nolan (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 11" orthodox submission grappler campaigning at Lightweight. 13 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 7 submission, 4 decision.
6' 3" southpaw technical striker campaigning at Lightweight. 5 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decision.