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Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal prediction
Welterweight · Moicano vs Nolan · 31 Oct 2026
Leal is 3 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).
Brown comes in on 2 straight UFC losses; Leal comes in off a win. A fighter in that spot wins 44% of the time (118 of 270 fights).
History leans Leal on 2 of these; our early read still favours Brown.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal.
| UFC 14-8 | UFC record | UFC 2-2 |
| 20-8 | Pro record | 23-7 |
| Rudeboy | Nickname | The Lion |
| 6' 3" | Height | 5' 11" |
| 78" | Reach | 74" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 36 | Age | 32 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 170 lbs. |
| Jamaica | Nationality | Brazil |
| Springfield, Massachusetts, United States | Born in | — |
| Queens, New York, United States | Fights out of | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Curitiba, Parana |
| Budokan Martial Arts Academy | Camp | Thai Brasil |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Randy Brown22 UFC fights · 1,016 landed
Carlos Leal4 UFC fights · 306 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Randy Brown
Carlos Leal
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.27 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Randy Brown (left) vs Carlos Leal (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 3" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Welterweight. 14 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 7 decision.
5' 11" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Welterweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 decision.