Round 1⚡ 3 KD RibovicsEnded 4:08
27 of 49
Sig.
strikes
strikes
35 of 71
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:04
Control
0:31
0
Knock-
downs
downs
3
Distance 24Clinch 3Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 28Clinch 0Ground 7
Red corner
KingGreenPinnacle MMA · Born in San Bernardino, California, United States · Fights out of Fontana, California, United States
VSSettled
Blue corner
EstebanRibovics“El Gringo”Kill Cliff FC · Born in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina · Fights out of Salta, Argentina
The story going in
- Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
- Has finished 2 of 5 UFC wins.
- Has finished 8 of 17 UFC wins.
36-18-1
Record
17-3
40
Age
−10 yr30
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
+2″71″
Reach
69″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
+2331
UFC bouts
8
+7%8/1747% of wins
Finishes
2/540% of wins
Pinnacle MMA
Gym
Kill Cliff FC
San Bernardino, California, United States
Born in
Tartagal, Salta, Argentina
Fontana, California, United States
Fights out of
Salta, Argentina
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Esteban Ribovics
71.3% confidentMED
The fight
Esteban Ribovics
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Ribovics is 9 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (411 of 631 fights).
Win streaks
Green comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 58% of the time (367 of 636 fights).
History leans Green on 1 of these; our model picked Ribovics.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Esteban Ribovics
Round
1
Clock
4:08
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
King Green
1.30 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.31 / 15m
3.10 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
0.47 / 15m
42%
ACCURACY
66%
0.30 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.10 / 15m
71%
TD DEFENCE
66%
Esteban Ribovics
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
King GreenEsteban RibovicsPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Esteban Ribovics's implied chance moved down from 70% to 64% (−7.0pp).
Our published call had Esteban Ribovics at 71.3%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 63.5% — our number sat 7.8pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green — sportsbook consensus | 28.9% | 28.9% | 35.5% | 35.5% | +6.6pp |
| Esteban Ribovics — sportsbook consensus | 71.1% | 64.5% | 71.1% | 64.5% | −6.6pp |
| King Green — Polymarket | 29.5% | 29.5% | 36.5% | 36.5% | +7.0pp |
| Esteban Ribovics — Polymarket | 70.5% | 63.5% | 70.5% | 63.5% | −7.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,184 snapshots on file · window Sep 25 17:11–Oct 03 23:51Z · last capture Oct 03, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.