strikes
downs
downs
happened


What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Gautier is 9 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (411 of 631 fights).
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (353 of 549 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Gautier comes in on a 5-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 58% of the time (367 of 636 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Roman Kopylov
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Ateba Gautier
Roman Kopylov
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Ateba Gautier's implied chance moved up from 64% to 68% (+4.5pp).
Our published call had Ateba Gautier at 78.6%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 68.5% — our number sat 10.1pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ateba Gautier — sportsbook consensus | 62.8% | 62.8% | 68.2% | 67.4% | +4.5pp |
| Roman Kopylov — sportsbook consensus | 37.2% | 31.8% | 37.2% | 32.6% | −4.5pp |
| Ateba Gautier — Polymarket | 64.0% | 62.0% | 68.5% | 68.5% | +4.5pp |
| Roman Kopylov — Polymarket | 36.0% | 31.5% | 38.0% | 31.5% | −4.5pp |