Round 12 sub attemptsEnded 4:20
57 of 87
Sig.
strikes
strikes
5 of 13
1 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
1:34
Control
0:07
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 22Clinch 0Ground 35
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 1Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
- Has dropped 4 straight in the UFC.
- Has finished 6 of 15 UFC wins.
- Has finished 8 of 15 UFC wins.
36-17-1
Record
29-23
39
Age
39
+1″5' 10"
Height
5' 9"
71″
Reach
71″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
29
UFC bouts
+635
6/1540% of wins
Finishes
+13%8/1553% of wins
Pinnacle MMA
Gym
Alliance MMA
Redlands, California
From
Des Moines, Iowa
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
King Green
79.1% confidentHIGH
The fight
King Green
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
King Green
Round
1
Clock
4:20
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Gary Copeland.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
King Green
1.33 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.10 / 15m
3.09 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.89 / 15m
43%
ACCURACY
38%
0.30 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.40 / 15m
72%
TD DEFENCE
61%
Jeremy Stephens
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
King GreenJeremy StephensPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: King Green's implied chance moved up from 72% to 80% (+7.5pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
Our published call had King Green at 79.1%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 79.5% — our number sat 0.4pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green — sportsbook consensus | 71.8% | 69.7% | 78.2% | 77.2% | +5.4pp |
| Jeremy Stephens — sportsbook consensus | 28.2% | 21.8% | 30.3% | 22.8% | −5.4pp |
| King Green — Polymarket | 72.0% | 71.5% | 80.0% | 79.5% | +7.5pp |
| Jeremy Stephens — Polymarket | 28.0% | 20.0% | 28.5% | 20.5% | −7.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,588 snapshots on file · window May 02 18:46–May 09 23:57Z · last capture May 09, 23:57Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.