The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomStrickland upsets Chimaev, and it was our model's biggest lockUFC 328 went 9 for 12 on our card, but the main event was the one we were most sure about, and we had it wrong.
The breakdown
Chimaev is undefeated, lethal, and the most physically intimidating man at 185 — Russian-Chechen wrestler who treats opponents like training dummies until they tap or get knocked down. Strickland is the former champion, a relentless volume striker who walks forward in a Philly Shell and dares you to throw with him. Stylistic mismatch on paper.
Chimaev needs Strickland on the mat, and he can probably get him there — Strickland's TDD has held up against most middleweights but never against an actual elite wrestler with explosive level changes. If Khamzat puts him on his back early it's a quick night. The hour Strickland survives off the takedown attempts is the hour his volume starts adding up — and he's the only fighter at 185 conditioned to throw 200+ strikes against anyone, including Chimaev.
- Chimaev 9-0 in UFC, never been outwrestled
- Strickland's 76% TDD elite for the division — has never been a blanket
- One-inch reach edge to Strickland — the only physical advantage on his side
- Five rounds favours Strickland's cardio if he survives the first wave
- Market -471 is the second-largest closing favorite of 2026 to date — model agrees at 84.2% but only +1.7pp on the edge
The breakdown
Taira is the long-term flyweight prospect who's been on every analyst's top-five list since his Contender Series debut — slick grappler, durable, technical from every range. Van is the same age cohort and somehow has the higher Elo at 24 — a flame that has burned hot since the day he signed.
Taira's 5-inch reach and grappling depth are real edges, but Van's been the more dominant of the two over the last 12 months. Either of these guys could be a top-three flyweight in 12 months.
- 5-inch reach edge to Taira
- Van the higher-Elo prospect at 24 — peak years approaching
- Both with one career loss only — undefeated mentalities meeting
- Five rounds is the swing factor for two finishers — neither has gone five before
- Market and model align at ~60% — flat, no betting edge
The breakdown
Volkov is the Russian giant who's been one fight away from a heavyweight title shot for half a decade — 6'7, 80-inch reach, the most technical kickboxer in the division on a good night. Cortes Acosta is the ranked Dominican heavyweight currently #4 in the division — 10-2 in the UFC, recent KO of Derrick Lewis at UFC 324. Two skilled boxers on near-equal Elo; this is a contender bout, not a gimme.
Volkov is past peak at 37 but the structural matchup still favours him — two inches of reach edge, a more polished jab, and a wider striking sample. Cortes Acosta is the more recent winner with serious power and the better cardio at 34. After CTO's 15:00Z regen the model now reads Volkov at 57.8% against a market 56.5% — only +1.3pp edge, no STRONG flag anymore. Closer fight than the morning numbers suggested.
- Cortes Acosta ranked #4 HW; 10-2 UFC; KO of Lewis at UFC 324
- Volkov 2-inch reach edge (80" vs 78")
- 3-year age gap, Cortes Acosta's way
- Both with KO power; both with credible chins so far
The breakdown
Brady is a top-five welterweight on most lists — wrestler-grappler with legitimate jiu-jitsu and the ability to control 15 minutes from top position. Buckley is one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the division coming off the only career stretch where he's strung together meaningful wins (4-1 in his last 5).
If Brady gets a takedown the round is his; if Buckley keeps it standing for three minutes per round, his hands change everything. Buckley's 4-inch reach edge is real, his TDD has improved, and Brady has been finished in his last loss. Model 61% Brady against market 59.5% — flat lean, both fighters have credible paths.
- 4-inch reach edge to Buckley
- Brady's grappling vs Buckley's improving TDD
- Buckley on 4-1 in last 5 — best stretch of his career
- Brady coming off back-to-back wins, top control + GnP recipe
- Model and market within 2pp — toss-up territory
The breakdown
Green is 39 and somehow on a 2-fight win streak after looking cooked in 2023 — the Bonecrusher of his generation, slick boxer with the fastest hands in the lightweight tail. Stephens is also 39, also a UFC veteran of nearly 50 fights, and on a 0-5 skid that has 'last UFC fight' written all over it.
Two veterans with combined 80+ pro fights between them. Stephens hasn't won since 2021. Green hits cleaner, moves better, and has the higher Elo by 100 points. The kind of fight where the edge is real but the size is partly a 'ageing veteran can still win Friday' arbitrage on a market that's already discounted Stephens hard.
- Stephens on a 5-fight losing streak — career on its last leg
- Green 2-fight win streak at 39 — recent form actually trending up
- Equal reach, both orthodox — pure boxing matchup
- Green's Elo 100 points higher than Stephens
The breakdown
Gautier is the unbeaten 24-year-old French middleweight prospect — 6'4, 81-inch reach, all four UFC wins as the favourite. Diaz is 11 years older with one UFC win to his name, dropped in here as the 'live underdog who isn't really live' role.
Polymarket has Gautier at 88.5% (-770) — extreme prices. The model has him at 78.1%, a full 10 points lower. Translation: not 'Diaz wins' but 'Gautier is overpriced' — Polymarket is treating this like a near-lock when it's still a fight. Tiny book caveat: only $621 in liquidity.
- Gautier 4-0 UFC, all as favourite — never tested as the underdog
- 2-inch reach edge to Gautier — both 6'4 with 79+ reach
- 11-year age gap, Gautier's way
- Polymarket liquidity tiny ($621) — UNDERDOG flag sits on a thin book
- Diaz 1-1 UFC — career trajectory completely unknown
The breakdown
Alvarez is the 6'3 Spanish lightweight-turned-welterweight with a long submission resume and a recent 4-fight UFC streak. Amosov is the former Bellator champion making his second UFC walk — 1-0 inside the UFC since the move, but the Bellator pedigree carries weight on the Elo board.
Polymarket prices Amosov as a -160 favourite; model has him at 52.5%. Alvarez has the height + reach edge, Amosov has the championship pedigree. Worth a small underdog ticket if the price holds; live data will tell.
- 3-inch reach edge to Alvarez
- Alvarez on a 4-fight UFC streak vs Amosov's 1-0 second UFC stint
- Amosov's Bellator championship pedigree pricing into the market
- Both at 32-33 in their physical prime
- Model says 47.5/52.5 — market says 38/62
The breakdown
Dawson is one of the most underrated lightweights in the UFC — 11-2 with grappling-heavy decisions and a recent loss-then-win bounce. Rebecki is the Polish striker who's gone 4-3 in the UFC, mixing in some highlight finishes against credible names.
Dawson's reach (5 inches), Elo (140 points), and wrestling depth all stack one way. Rebecki can throw, but Dawson should be able to dictate where this happens.
- 5-inch reach gap, Dawson's way
- 140-point Elo gap, Dawson's way
- Rebecki has been finished 3 times in his last 7 — durability question
- Dawson's grappling — fight goes where he wants it
- Biggest moneyline edge on the card (+11pp STRONG)
The breakdown
Kopylov is the Russian middleweight kickboxer with seven knockouts on his ledger and a recent 0-2 stretch — career-correction territory. Tulio is the younger Brazilian on a 2-fight UFC win streak, 6'0 with 74-inch reach.
Equal physicals (6'0 / 74-75 reach). Kopylov's striking pedigree is the live wildcard; if he can land clean once, it ends. Tulio's path is keep it ugly and outwork him.
- Both 6'0, near-equal reach — neutral physicals
- Kopylov 0-2 in last 2 — career correction needed
- Tulio younger by 3 years
- Kopylov 7 KO wins — knockout threat is real
- Polymarket pricing Tulio firmer than the model thinks
The breakdown
Sabatini is the American featherweight grappler with serious BJJ pedigree — 8-2 in the UFC with submissions on his ledger. Gomis is the French featherweight on a 5-1 stretch, taller and longer, the betting favourite at -217.
Polymarket prices Gomis at 68.5%; the model has him at 54%. Sabatini's submission threat is the differentiator. The market is paying for Gomis's height and recent form; the model thinks Sabatini's grappling closes the gap.
- 3-inch reach edge to Gomis
- Sabatini's BJJ — only fighter with elite submission threat in the matchup
- Gomis the more recent winner; Sabatini more proven UFC sample
- Biggest UNDERDOG edge on the card (+14.25pp)
- Polymarket book very thin ($2.6k liq) — flag has high variance on price
The breakdown
Susurkaev is the unbeaten Russian-Chechen prospect — 6'2, 79-inch reach, both UFC wins as the favourite. Santos is the Brazilian middleweight 1-1 in the UFC, 4-inch reach disadvantage and 3 years older.
Polymarket has Susurkaev at 82% (-456). Model has him at 70%, against a market 12 points wider. Same shape as F6 Gautier-Diaz: the market is overpaying for the prospect's pedigree and the model thinks the underdog has a real fight.
- Same prospect-overpriced pattern as F6 Gautier
- 4-inch reach gap to Susurkaev
- Susurkaev 2-0 UFC, both as favourite
- Model softer than market on the favourite
- Polymarket book moderate ($5.5k) — better than F6/F10 but still light
The breakdown
Carpenter is 2-2 in the UFC at flyweight, the lower-ranked of two struggling prospects. Ochoa is 1-2, four years younger, with a one-inch reach edge.
Tiny edge, tiny book ($2.7k). The kind of fight where the model and market disagree by a small amount and neither is necessarily wrong; both fighters are on the bubble.
- 1-inch reach gap, Ochoa's way
- 4-year age gap, Ochoa's way
- Both with sub-.500 UFC records — bubble fight
- Polymarket book light ($2.7k)
- Small UNDERDOG flag — variance high relative to expected edge